Will Mushuc Runa SC win on 2026-11-09?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 56¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$8.7

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 55.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,495

Combined PnL-$8.21

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,739

Combined PnL+$16.91

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52.3¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$14.42	—
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$45.82	—
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$356.52	$387.76	+$28.76	—
└ No leg	Noavg 42.4¢	$217.87	$269.74	+$51.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.8¢	$138.65	$118.01	-$23.12
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 55.6¢	$322.86	$200.08	-$3.17	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.6¢	$105.79	$109.3	+$0.03
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$93.96	$90.77	-$3.2
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 52.1¢	$144.82	$123.25	-$11.68	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 52.3¢	$132.38	$120.29	-$12.09	—
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 43.3¢	$55.38	$61.9	+$5.48	—
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	$51.95	$54.41	+$2.45	—
RN1<$100	Noavg 52¢	$44.63	$45.06	+$0.43	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$26	$23.75	-$2.25	—
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 53¢	$10.6	$10.9	+$0.3	—
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$14.2	$9.1	-$5.1	—
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.38	-$0.18	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.38	-$0.08	—
LA LaarsY<$100	Noavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.09	+$0.01	—

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,868.08

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$14.42

Record

—

glennyorkshireCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,405.23

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$45.82

Record

—

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$356.52

Value

$387.76

PnL

+$28.76

Record

—

Both legs:

No$217.8742.4¢+$51.87

Yes$138.6555.8¢-$23.12

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$322.86

Value

$200.08

PnL

-$3.17

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Both legs:

Yes$105.7955.6¢+$0.03

No$93.9644¢-$3.2

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$144.82

Value

$123.25

PnL

-$11.68

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.38

Value

$120.29

PnL

-$12.09

Record

—

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$55.38

Value

$61.9

PnL

+$5.48

Record

—

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.95

Value

$54.41

PnL

+$2.45

Record

—

RN1<$100

Invested

$44.63

Value

$45.06

PnL

+$0.43

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

—

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

—

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.2

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$5.1

Record

—

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.08

Record

—

LaarsY<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.