Will Doncaster Rovers FC win on 2026-11-14?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 99¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

-$127.87

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares16,618

Combined PnL-$51.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$247.92

Total Shares24,792

Combined PnL-$76.64

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Cypya	Noavg 98.7¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$15	— 1-3 (4)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$20.89	53% 5512-4919 (10431)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 98.4¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$0.35	56% 92-72 (164)
ME merod	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$2.36	81% 35-8 (43)
KO korda77	Noavg 98.9¢	$478.62	$476.01	-$2.61	86% 36-6 (42)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.6¢	$448.3	$442.8	-$5.5	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 98.7¢	$428.83	$427.52	-$1.32	45% 273-328 (601)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 98.3¢	$418.82	$419.04	+$0.22	39% 303-465 (768)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 99.4¢	$305.44	$302.5	-$2.94	39% 624-957 (1581)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$323.47	$244.36	-$79.11	40% 234-357 (591)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 98.8¢	$167.18	$166.46	-$0.72	41% 299-433 (732)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 98.7¢	$106.06	$105.77	-$0.29	44% 286-362 (648)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 98.8¢	$101.04	$100.68	-$0.36	39% 309-489 (798)
bot-rapin<$100	Noavg 98¢	$79.01	$29.5	+$0.88	100% 33-0 (33)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.08	$3.55	+$2.47	12% 17-121 (138)

Cypya

Invested

$4,934.98

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$15

Record

—

1-3 (4)

cigarettes

Invested

$4,192.7

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$20.89

Record

53%

5512-4919 (10431)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$3,567.53

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$0.35

Record

56%

92-72 (164)

merod

Invested

$1,224.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$2.36

Record

81%

35-8 (43)

korda77

Invested

$478.62

Value

$476.01

PnL

-$2.61

Record

86%

36-6 (42)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$448.3

Value

$442.8

PnL

-$5.5

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$428.83

Value

$427.52

PnL

-$1.32

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$418.82

Value

$419.04

PnL

+$0.22

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$305.44

Value

$302.5

PnL

-$2.94

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$323.47

Value

$244.36

PnL

-$79.11

Record

40%

234-357 (591)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$167.18

Value

$166.46

PnL

-$0.72

Record

41%

299-433 (732)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$106.06

Value

$105.77

PnL

-$0.29

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$101.04

Value

$100.68

PnL

-$0.36

Record

39%

309-489 (798)

bot-rapin<$100

Invested

$79.01

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$0.88

Record

100%

33-0 (33)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$2.47

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.