Will Stevenage FC vs. Mansfield Town FC end in a draw?

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$56.13

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 98.8¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 15 top traders (27%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,652

Combined PnL-$26.33

No11 traders

Total Value$105.66

Total Shares9,684

Combined PnL-$29.8

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QE qetuoa	Yesavg 99¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$25.74	—
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 98.4¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	56% 91-72 (163)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 98.9¢	$578.41	$577.46	-$0.95	100% 33-0 (33)
CR Crock95<$100	Yesavg 97.6¢	$44.36	$44.72	+$0.36	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 1.4¢	$44.6	$35.67	-$8.93	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 1.5¢	$27.19	$20.4	-$6.78	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$12.41	$12.41	+$0	86% 32-5 (37)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$17.37	$9.84	-$7.53	85% 23-4 (27)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$10.54	$9.2	-$1.34	38% 173-282 (455)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$7.22	$6.02	-$1.21	34% 199-384 (583)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$6.25	$4.1	-$2.16	32% 205-443 (648)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$3.79	$3.25	-$0.55	31% 190-424 (614)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$3.45	$2.85	-$0.6	36% 521-909 (1430)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 1.6¢	$2.46	$1.68	-$0.78	53% 1595-1413 (3008)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$0.18	$0.24	+$0.06	37% 190-317 (507)

qetuoa

Yes

Invested

$4,425.16

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$25.74

Record

—

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$2,510.18

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

91-72 (163)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$578.41

Value

$577.46

PnL

-$0.95

Record

100%

33-0 (33)

Crock95<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.36

Value

$44.72

PnL

+$0.36

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$44.6

Value

$35.67

PnL

-$8.93

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$27.19

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$6.78

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$0

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$17.37

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$7.53

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$10.54

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$1.34

Record

38%

173-282 (455)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$1.21

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$6.25

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$2.16

Record

32%

205-443 (648)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0.55

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.6

Record

36%

521-909 (1430)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

1595-1413 (3008)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.06

Record

37%

190-317 (507)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 15 top traders (27%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.