Will Wycombe Wanderers FC win on 2026-11-14?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 99¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

-$49.36

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares16,861

Combined PnL+$81.85

Yes1 trader

Total Value$169.07

Total Shares21,134

Combined PnL-$131.22

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Cypya	Noavg 98.7¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$36.14	— 1-3 (4)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 98.2¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$37.51	56% 92-72 (164)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$1.13	53% 5512-4919 (10431)
ME merod	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$4.29	81% 35-8 (43)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.7¢	$699.91	$703.56	+$3.65	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.1¢	$571.93	$572.73	+$0.8	86% 36-6 (42)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 99.2¢	$475.29	$475.12	-$0.17	39% 303-465 (768)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$300.29	$169.07	-$131.22	40% 234-357 (591)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 99.3¢	$165.91	$165.66	-$0.25	44% 286-362 (648)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$99.92	$99.75	-$0.17	39% 624-957 (1581)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$98.72	$98.68	-$0.03	39% 309-489 (798)
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.9¢	$109.44	$73.59	+$0.37	100% 33-0 (33)
FL FlyingPlaty<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$67.59	$68.28	+$0.69	— 3-0 (3)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$57.89	$57.88	-$0.01	45% 273-328 (601)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$40.57	$40.74	+$0.17	41% 299-433 (732)

Cypya

Invested

$6,425.29

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$36.14

Record

—

1-3 (4)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$3,782.36

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$37.51

Record

56%

92-72 (164)

cigarettes

Invested

$2,624.65

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$1.13

Record

53%

5512-4919 (10431)

merod

Invested

$1,474.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$4.29

Record

81%

35-8 (43)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$699.91

Value

$703.56

PnL

+$3.65

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

korda77

Invested

$571.93

Value

$572.73

PnL

+$0.8

Record

86%

36-6 (42)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$475.29

Value

$475.12

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$300.29

Value

$169.07

PnL

-$131.22

Record

40%

234-357 (591)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$165.91

Value

$165.66

PnL

-$0.25

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$99.92

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$98.72

Value

$98.68

PnL

-$0.03

Record

39%

309-489 (798)

bot-rapin

Invested

$109.44

Value

$73.59

PnL

+$0.37

Record

100%

33-0 (33)

FlyingPlaty<$100

Invested

$67.59

Value

$68.28

PnL

+$0.69

Record

—

3-0 (3)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$57.89

Value

$57.88

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$40.57

Value

$40.74

PnL

+$0.17

Record

41%

299-433 (732)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.