Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 6 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Toulouse FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (35%) · Over at 49¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 6

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 35%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

-$421.13

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 48.5¢

-20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 17 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares9,641

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under11 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares13,013

Combined PnL+$663.06

Over — 35%Under — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 61¢	$5.2K	$4.3K	-$937.99	42% 8079-11282 (19361)
nigiri99	Underavg 42¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$497.59	46% 8689-10363 (19052)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 58¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$62.88	64% 10093-5699 (15792)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$187.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.2¢	$950	$1.2K	+$250.38
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$60.48	64% 10070-5629 (15699)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$20
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$788.23	$868.71	+$80.48
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 39.6¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$148.52	47% 364-413 (777)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 59¢	$1.1K	$927.83	-$148.84	56% 8105-6430 (14535)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 44¢	$670.34	$655.11	-$15.24	50% 37972-37225 (75197)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 60.4¢	$344.49	$332.31	-$12.18	50% 28618-28449 (57067)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$163.34	$168.9	+$5.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.4¢	$181.15	$163.4	-$17.75
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$266.64	$298.28	+$31.64	51% 26332-24957 (51289)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.4¢	$137.21	$159.17	+$21.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.2¢	$163.99	$139.11	+$9.68
LI Limousin	Underavg 40.2¢	$210.99	$225.75	+$14.76	51% 1649-1557 (3206)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 52.8¢	$219.47	$216.92	-$1.57	48% 61940-66801 (128741)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.8¢	$178.25	$163.88	-$14.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$40.17	$53.05	+$12.88
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 41.2¢	$143.38	$148.98	+$7.92	50% 21379-21654 (43033)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 41.2¢	$128.21	$133.82	+$5.6	50% 1594-1615 (3209)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$86.9	$96.17	+$9.27	50% 1611-1639 (3250)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 40.8¢	$330.2	$83.42	-$6.92	58% 47081-33963 (81044)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$37.78	$33.01	+$1.97	54% 10097-8479 (18576)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$31.87	$32.49	+$0.61	50% 26114-25775 (51889)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 42¢	$29.56	$30.26	+$0.7	53% 16941-15068 (32009)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 41.2¢	$16.28	$16.99	+$0.71	49% 1548-1633 (3181)
RN1<$100	Underavg 47¢	$14.37	$14.53	+$0.15	53% 61790-54064 (115854)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$4.8	$5	+$0.17	52% 8855-8042 (16897)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.17	$1.05	-$0.12	55% 3659-3019 (6678)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$5,197.45

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$937.99

Record

42%

8079-11282 (19361)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,377.68

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$497.59

Record

46%

8689-10363 (19052)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$62.88

Record

64%

10093-5699 (15792)

Both legs:

Over$1,45058¢-$187.5

Under$95039.2¢+$250.38

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,948.23

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$60.48

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

Both legs:

Over$1,16058¢-$20

Under$788.2339¢+$80.48

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$1,739.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$148.52

Record

47%

364-413 (777)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,076.67

Value

$927.83

PnL

-$148.84

Record

56%

8105-6430 (14535)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$670.34

Value

$655.11

PnL

-$15.24

Record

50%

37972-37225 (75197)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$344.49

Value

$332.31

PnL

-$12.18

Record

50%

28618-28449 (57067)

Both legs:

Under$163.3444¢+$5.57

Over$181.1560.4¢-$17.75

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$266.64

Value

$298.28

PnL

+$31.64

Record

51%

26332-24957 (51289)

Both legs:

Under$137.2144.4¢+$21.96

Over$163.9957.2¢+$9.68

Limousin

Under

Invested

$210.99

Value

$225.75

PnL

+$14.76

Record

51%

1649-1557 (3206)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$219.47

Value

$216.92

PnL

-$1.57

Record

48%

61940-66801 (128741)

Both legs:

Over$178.2552.8¢-$14.44

Under$40.1739¢+$12.88

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$143.38

Value

$148.98

PnL

+$7.92

Record

50%

21379-21654 (43033)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$128.21

Value

$133.82

PnL

+$5.6

Record

50%

1594-1615 (3209)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$86.9

Value

$96.17

PnL

+$9.27

Record

50%

1611-1639 (3250)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$330.2

Value

$83.42

PnL

-$6.92

Record

58%

47081-33963 (81044)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.78

Value

$33.01

PnL

+$1.97

Record

54%

10097-8479 (18576)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.87

Value

$32.49

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

26114-25775 (51889)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$29.56

Value

$30.26

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

16941-15068 (32009)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.99

PnL

+$0.71

Record

49%

1548-1633 (3181)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$14.37

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

61790-54064 (115854)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

8855-8042 (16897)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.12

Record

55%

3659-3019 (6678)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 17 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.