Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Thunder — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Thunder
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
Resolved Thunder. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Thunder. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Thunder 27%
3 arb excluded
$17.3K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
4 of 15 top traders (27%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Cavaliersavg 48.2¢ | $5.8K | $3.5K | $-2.3K | 54% 18039-15168 (33207) |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 48.2¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 51.3¢ | $1.8K | $3.5K | +$1.7K | |
MA MAGATheeStallion | Thunderavg 53¢ | $5.7K | $5.7K | +$2.7K | 58% 276-201 (477) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Thunderavg 54¢ | $3.3K | $6.1K | +$2.8K | 53% 642-565 (1207) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Cavaliersavg 47.1¢ | $2.2K | — | $-2.2K | 60% 4424-2918 (7342) |
AY ay118CTR | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 43% 45-60 (105) |
 nigiri99CTR | Cavaliersavg 50.2¢ | $744.7 | — | $-1.9K | 46% 8424-9994 (18418) |
 StreamLIVE | Thunderavg 53.2¢ | $585.73 | $1.1K | +$514.27 | 55% 1259-1020 (2279) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cavaliersavg 48.3¢ | $725 | — | -$554.63 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
DV dv-pmARB<$100 | Thunderavg 49.2¢ | $385.96 | $400 | +$13.03 | 49% 3309-3463 (6772) |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 49.2¢ | $196.99 | $400 | +$202 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 47.2¢ | $188.97 | — | -$188.97 | |
SE sentrioCTR | Cavaliersavg 47.2¢ | $355.21 | — | -$355.21 | 50% 25577-25281 (50858) |
NM NM-PCTR | Cavaliersavg 48.5¢ | $356.79 | — | -$356.79 | 40% 1398-2089 (3487) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Cavaliersavg 48¢ | $332.16 | — | -$332.16 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
 RN1 | Thunderavg 54.5¢ | $272.5 | $500 | +$227.5 | 53% 60181-52537 (112718) |
HE HerdoniaARB<$100 | Cavaliersavg 48.1¢ | $234.47 | $114.82 | -$119.64 | 51% 3584-3513 (7097) |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 48.1¢ | $178.2 | — | -$178.2 | |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 49¢ | $56.26 | $114.82 | +$58.56 | |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Cavaliersavg 47¢ | $194.78 | — | -$194.78 | 51% 1831-1762 (3593) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 49¢ | $9.35 | — | -$9.35 | 73% 2438-885 (3323) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 45¢ | $7.44 | — | -$7.44 | 39% 1400-2160 (3560) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 48¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 52% 8633-7856 (16489) |
Invested
$5,764.79
Value
$3.5K
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
54%
18039-15168 (33207)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,660
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
58%
276-201 (477)
Invested
$3,289.81
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
53%
642-565 (1207)
Invested
$2,168.87
Value
—
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
60%
4424-2918 (7342)
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
43%
45-60 (105)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$744.7
Value
—
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
46%
8424-9994 (18418)
StreamLIVEInvested
$585.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$514.27
Record
55%
1259-1020 (2279)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$725
Value
—
PnL
-$554.63
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
Invested
$385.96
Value
$400
PnL
+$13.03
Record
49%
3309-3463 (6772)
Both legs:
Invested
$355.21
Value
—
PnL
-$355.21
Record
50%
25577-25281 (50858)
Invested
$356.79
Value
—
PnL
-$356.79
Record
40%
1398-2089 (3487)
Invested
$332.16
Value
—
PnL
-$332.16
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
RN1Invested
$272.5
Value
$500
PnL
+$227.5
Record
53%
60181-52537 (112718)
Invested
$234.47
Value
$114.82
PnL
-$119.64
Record
51%
3584-3513 (7097)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.78
Value
—
PnL
-$194.78
Record
51%
1831-1762 (3593)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.35
Value
—
PnL
-$9.35
Record
73%
2438-885 (3323)
Invested
$7.44
Value
—
PnL
-$7.44
Record
39%
1400-2160 (3560)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
52%
8633-7856 (16489)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MAGATheeStallion
Thunder — $5.7K
monkeymashingkeyboard
Thunder — $6.1K
SunlineTicker
CTRCavaliers — $0
ay118
CTRCavaliers — $0
nigiri99
CTRCavaliers — $0
StreamLIVE
Thunder — $1.1K
VeryLucky888
CTRCavaliers — $0
dv-pm
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sentrio
CTRCavaliers — $0