Spread: Rockets (-4.5)

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (33%) · Nuggets at 51¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets50¢Nuggets50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 33%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 50.5¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

6 of 18 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets50%

Nuggets51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets6 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,658

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Rockets12 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,125

Combined PnL-$137.21

Nuggets — 33%Rockets — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRockets 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 43.9¢	$5.0K	$5.6K	+$506.71	4% 5-123 (128)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 43.9¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$440.16
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$66.55
Greedo	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$150	—
RollAwayTheDew	Nuggetsavg 27¢	$1.6K	$3.0K	+$1.4K	1% 1-78 (79)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Rocketsavg 48¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$69.15	30% 29-67 (96)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Rocketsavg 55.5¢	$750.13	$669.31	-$80.82	48% 129-139 (268)
nigiri99CTR	Rocketsavg 54.6¢	$618.56	$560.34	-$58.22	43% 28-37 (65)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 50.5¢	$492.17	$496.99	+$4.83	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 50.5¢	$335.72	$335.66	-$0.06
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48¢	$156.45	$161.34	+$4.89
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 48.3¢	$985.54	$479.88	-$60.57	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 48.3¢	$302.73	$316.64	+$13.91
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 57.1¢	$188.47	$163.24	-$74.48
NM NM-PARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 50.5¢	$474.46	$479.11	+$4.65	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 50.5¢	$317.7	$317.46	-$0.25
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48¢	$156.75	$161.65	+$4.9
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$400	$202	-$2	5% 21-415 (436)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 49¢	$151.41	$152.96	+$1.55	52% 242-224 (466)
VeryLucky888	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$128	$129.28	+$1.28	49% 60-63 (123)
AU auros2CTR	Rocketsavg 59¢	$191.06	$94.57	-$18.15	—
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 57¢	$57	$49.5	-$7.5	48% 32-35 (67)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 56¢	$42.02	$37.14	-$4.88	39% 179-277 (456)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 64¢	$46.74	$35.59	-$11.15	45% 38-46 (84)
RN1CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 48¢	$15.91	$16.4	+$0.5	54% 233-201 (434)
PA Pan9XCTR	Rocketsavg 58.2¢	$193.72	$11.22	-$25.83	48% 173-188 (361)
balthazarCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 54¢	$10.8	$9.9	-$0.9	56% 47-37 (84)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 59¢	$5.9	$4.95	-$0.95	22% 28-97 (125)
HI hi774c<$100	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$2.6	$2.53	-$0.08	3% 9-249 (258)
LI LightParadox<$100	Nuggetsavg 35¢	$2.5	$2.53	+$0.03	26% 87-252 (339)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$5,045.69

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$506.71

Record

5-123 (128)

Both legs:

Nuggets$2,915.9343.9¢+$440.16

Rockets$2,129.7648¢+$66.55

Greedo

Nuggets

Invested

$5,200

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$150

Record

—

RollAwayTheDew

Nuggets

Invested

$1,617.84

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

1-78 (79)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,611.71

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$69.15

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

6512395314597884CTR

Rockets

Invested

$750.13

Value

$669.31

PnL

-$80.82

Record

48%

129-139 (268)

nigiri99CTR

Rockets

Invested

$618.56

Value

$560.34

PnL

-$58.22

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

GC-PARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$492.17

Value

$496.99

PnL

+$4.83

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Nuggets$335.7250.5¢-$0.06

Rockets$156.4548¢+$4.89

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$985.54

Value

$479.88

PnL

-$60.57

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Nuggets$302.7348.3¢+$13.91

Rockets$188.4757.1¢-$74.48

NM-PARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$474.46

Value

$479.11

PnL

+$4.65

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Nuggets$317.750.5¢-$0.25

Rockets$156.7548¢+$4.9

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nuggets

Invested

$400

Value

$202

PnL

-$2

Record

21-415 (436)

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$151.41

Value

$152.96

PnL

+$1.55

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

VeryLucky888

Nuggets

Invested

$128

Value

$129.28

PnL

+$1.28

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

auros2CTR

Rockets

Invested

$191.06

Value

$94.57

PnL

-$18.15

Record

—

GaditimaCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$57

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

e46m3CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$42.02

Value

$37.14

PnL

-$4.88

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$46.74

Value

$35.59

PnL

-$11.15

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

RN1CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$15.91

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Pan9XCTR

Rockets

Invested

$193.72

Value

$11.22

PnL

-$25.83

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

balthazarCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$10.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

RLWGCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.95

Record

22%

28-97 (125)

hi774c<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.08

Record

9-249 (258)

LightParadox<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

6 of 18 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRockets 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.