Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Nuggets (77%). 3 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)

3 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (16%) · Grizzlies at 24¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets77¢Grizzlies23¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 16%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$166.32

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 23.5¢

-55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 19 top traders (16%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets77%

Grizzlies24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,554

Combined PnL-$316.18

Nuggets16 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,867

Combined PnL+$482.5

Grizzlies — 16%Nuggets — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNuggets 89% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 85% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$42.87	54% 521-441 (962)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$617.42	$658.15	+$40.73	55% 719-584 (1303)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nuggetsavg 46.3¢	$374.96	$526.42	+$151.46	15% 150-841 (991)
RN1	Nuggetsavg 53.4¢	$335.03	$470.45	+$135.42	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
LI LightParadox	Nuggetsavg 47¢	$454.44	$444.77	-$9.67	31% 412-918 (1330)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Grizzliesavg 46.9¢	$776.95	$413.81	-$363.14	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
SU SunlineTicker	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$396.36	$396.36	-$0	70% 1671-717 (2388)
FL Flaznorp	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$208.52	$322.16	+$113.64	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 49.7¢	$294.41	$288.17	+$0.34	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 49.7¢	$171.56	$188.03	+$16.09
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 52.7¢	$115.89	$100.14	-$15.75
MA MadridTime	Nuggetsavg 47¢	$287.97	$281.84	-$6.13	31% 410-897 (1307)
AN Anon455	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$210.3	$266	+$55.69	45% 183-223 (406)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$210.61	$210.57	-$0.04	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$153.11	$151.44	-$1.66
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$57.5	$59.13	+$1.63
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Grizzliesavg 52.1¢	$201.1	$205.2	+$4.1	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
SN SnakeBall	Nuggetsavg 46.3¢	$123.63	$122.78	-$0.85	47% 299-342 (641)
GC GC-P	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$117.76	$117.76	-$0	20% 99-384 (483)
NM NM-P<$100	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$98.46	$98.46	-$0	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nuggetsavg 51.3¢	$43.81	$43.34	+$2.13	49% 692-733 (1425)
DV dv-pm<$100	Nuggetsavg 47¢	$42.77	$41.86	-$0.91	— 7-5 (12)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$38.96	$39.81	+$0.85	48% 536-588 (1124)
VeryLucky888<$100	Nuggetsavg 46.8¢	$48.42	$9.36	+$0.14	52% 497-452 (949)
SE sentrio<$100	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.3	+$0	39% 394-619 (1013)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$4,543.72

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$42.87

Record

54%

521-441 (962)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Nuggets

Invested

$617.42

Value

$658.15

PnL

+$40.73

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nuggets

Invested

$374.96

Value

$526.42

PnL

+$151.46

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

RN1

Nuggets

Invested

$335.03

Value

$470.45

PnL

+$135.42

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

LightParadox

Nuggets

Invested

$454.44

Value

$444.77

PnL

-$9.67

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

6512395314597884CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$776.95

Value

$413.81

PnL

-$363.14

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

SunlineTicker

Nuggets

Invested

$396.36

Value

$396.36

PnL

-$0

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

Flaznorp

Nuggets

Invested

$208.52

Value

$322.16

PnL

+$113.64

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$294.41

Value

$288.17

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Nuggets$171.5649.7¢+$16.09

Grizzlies$115.8952.7¢-$15.75

MadridTime

Nuggets

Invested

$287.97

Value

$281.84

PnL

-$6.13

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

Anon455

Nuggets

Invested

$210.3

Value

$266

PnL

+$55.69

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$210.61

Value

$210.57

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$153.1146¢-$1.66

Nuggets$57.553¢+$1.63

HomeRunHazardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$201.1

Value

$205.2

PnL

+$4.1

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

SnakeBall

Nuggets

Invested

$123.63

Value

$122.78

PnL

-$0.85

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

GC-P

Nuggets

Invested

$117.76

Value

$117.76

PnL

-$0

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

NM-P<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$98.46

Value

$98.46

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Pan9X<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$43.81

Value

$43.34

PnL

+$2.13

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

dv-pm<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$42.77

Value

$41.86

PnL

-$0.91

Record

—

7-5 (12)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$38.96

Value

$39.81

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

VeryLucky888<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$48.42

Value

$9.36

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

sentrio<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 19 top traders (16%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNuggets 89% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Nuggets 85% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.