Lakers vs. Hawks

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (59%) · Lakers at 53¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 10

Lakers53¢Hawks47¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$445.42

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 52.5¢

-2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

13 of 22 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers53%

Hawks48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers13 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares18,199

Combined PnL+$358.41

Hawks9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,288

Combined PnL+$87.01

Lakers — 59%Hawks — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLakers 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 53.6¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$49.82	54% 20307-17152 (37459)
Medo3D	Lakersavg 50.2¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$412.22	41% 198-288 (486)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hawksavg 42.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$147.55	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
PU purplegatto	Lakersavg 60.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$91.19	49% 6745-6941 (13686)
DA darkumbreon88	Lakersavg 56.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$12.59	65% 2214-1211 (3425)
nigiri99	Lakersavg 52.7¢	$853	$976.08	+$123.08	45% 14859-18189 (33048)
IC ic4creamCTR	Hawksavg 51¢	$603.08	$516.1	-$86.98	56% 2892-2278 (5170)
FL Flaznorp	Lakersavg 52¢	$396.48	$400.29	+$3.81	52% 49335-46295 (95630)
SE sentrio	Lakersavg 53.2¢	$393.24	$387.78	-$5.46	51% 28769-28143 (56912)
SN SnakeBall	Lakersavg 52.6¢	$380.93	$379.96	-$0.97	50% 49196-48732 (97928)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Hawksavg 45.3¢	$313.94	$313.34	+$4.37	51% 6049-5802 (11851)
VeryLucky888	Lakersavg 52¢	$685.28	$308.17	+$10.24	58% 53685-38217 (91902)
FO forecastication4	Lakersavg 62.6¢	$265.84	$237.82	-$30.15	50% 1623-1614 (3237)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Hawksavg 40.2¢	$182.32	$203.16	+$20.84	50% 24077-24172 (48249)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Lakersavg 58.2¢	$281.31	$180.35	-$4.68	53% 28261-25544 (53805)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 58.2¢	$115.6	$104.23	-$8.72
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 44¢	$70.57	$76.12	+$4.04
GH ghorrock<$100	Lakersavg 54.2¢	$98.56	$95.5	-$3.05	57% 25439-18984 (44423)
NM NM-P<$100	Lakersavg 52¢	$33.88	$34.21	+$0.33	57% 22786-16894 (39680)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Hawksavg 42.2¢	$22.98	$24.5	+$1.91	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Hawksavg 43.7¢	$18.02	$18.87	-$0.3	50% 8671-8840 (17511)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Lakersavg 51.2¢	$12.59	$14.54	+$1.95	48% 8395-8930 (17325)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hawksavg 46.2¢	$5.64	$5.49	-$0.15	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Hawksavg 45.2¢	$4.9	$4.88	+$0.05	45% 2577-3112 (5689)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Hawksavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.25	-$0.28	47% 8784-9968 (18752)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$2,752.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$49.82

Record

54%

20307-17152 (37459)

Medo3D

Lakers

Invested

$2,180.38

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$412.22

Record

41%

198-288 (486)

38791873984189CTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,348.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$147.55

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

purplegatto

Lakers

Invested

$1,237.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$91.19

Record

49%

6745-6941 (13686)

darkumbreon88

Lakers

Invested

$1,032.13

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$12.59

Record

65%

2214-1211 (3425)

nigiri99

Lakers

Invested

$853

Value

$976.08

PnL

+$123.08

Record

45%

14859-18189 (33048)

ic4creamCTR

Hawks

Invested

$603.08

Value

$516.1

PnL

-$86.98

Record

56%

2892-2278 (5170)

Flaznorp

Lakers

Invested

$396.48

Value

$400.29

PnL

+$3.81

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

sentrio

Lakers

Invested

$393.24

Value

$387.78

PnL

-$5.46

Record

51%

28769-28143 (56912)

SnakeBall

Lakers

Invested

$380.93

Value

$379.96

PnL

-$0.97

Record

50%

49196-48732 (97928)

6512395314597884CTR

Hawks

Invested

$313.94

Value

$313.34

PnL

+$4.37

Record

51%

6049-5802 (11851)

VeryLucky888

Lakers

Invested

$685.28

Value

$308.17

PnL

+$10.24

Record

58%

53685-38217 (91902)

forecastication4

Lakers

Invested

$265.84

Value

$237.82

PnL

-$30.15

Record

50%

1623-1614 (3237)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Hawks

Invested

$182.32

Value

$203.16

PnL

+$20.84

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

Pan9XARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$281.31

Value

$180.35

PnL

-$4.68

Record

53%

28261-25544 (53805)

Both legs:

Lakers$115.658.2¢-$8.72

Hawks$70.5744¢+$4.04

ghorrock<$100

Lakers

Invested

$98.56

Value

$95.5

PnL

-$3.05

Record

57%

25439-18984 (44423)

NM-P<$100

Lakers

Invested

$33.88

Value

$34.21

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

22786-16894 (39680)

LimousinCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$22.98

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$1.91

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

RLWGCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$18.02

Value

$18.87

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

8671-8840 (17511)

Oddstorm<$100

Lakers

Invested

$12.59

Value

$14.54

PnL

+$1.95

Record

48%

8395-8930 (17325)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.15

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.05

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.28

Record

47%

8784-9968 (18752)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

13 of 22 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLakers 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.