Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 55¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 10

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

-$189.17

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 54.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,485

Combined PnL-$169.42

Over10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,953

Combined PnL-$19.75

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 50.1¢	$6.4K	$6.0K	-$456.07	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.1¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$549.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$93.59
nehcnehc	Underavg 50¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$146.2	8% 2-23 (25)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 51.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.56	30% 105-246 (351)
PL plusti	Underavg 50.2¢	$1,000	$946.12	-$53.88	14% 3-18 (21)
nigiri99	Underavg 52.3¢	$835.07	$870.91	+$35.84	43% 28-37 (65)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48.6¢	$598.08	$598.13	+$0.06	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.6¢	$451.34	$440.92	-$10.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$146.73	$157.21	+$10.48
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$515.62	$512.55	-$3.07	6% 11-164 (175)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 48¢	$500	$494.79	-$5.21	0% 0-42 (42)
RN1CTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$437.4	$418.37	-$27.58	54% 233-201 (434)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$240	$237.5	-$2.5	69% 29-13 (42)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 52¢	$208	$206	-$2	5% 21-415 (436)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$77.42	$78.24	+$0.82	3% 4-156 (160)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$46.89	$47.45	+$0.56	10% 11-104 (115)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$29.61	$29.92	+$0.31	6% 2-34 (36)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$54.15	$27.21	+$0.38	53% 86-75 (161)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$26.5	$26.25	-$0.25	32% 68-143 (211)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.81	$1.83	+$0.02	3% 9-249 (258)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 48¢	$0.59	$0.59	+$0.01	4% 5-123 (128)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,425.42

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$456.07

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Over$4,930.650.1¢-$549.66

Under$1,494.8352.2¢+$93.59

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$2,924

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$146.2

Record

2-23 (25)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$1,153.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.56

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

plusti

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$946.12

PnL

-$53.88

Record

14%

3-18 (21)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$835.07

Value

$870.91

PnL

+$35.84

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$598.08

Value

$598.13

PnL

+$0.06

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Over$451.3448.6¢-$10.42

Under$146.7349¢+$10.48

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$515.62

Value

$512.55

PnL

-$3.07

Record

11-164 (175)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$494.79

PnL

-$5.21

Record

0-42 (42)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$437.4

Value

$418.37

PnL

-$27.58

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$208

Value

$206

PnL

-$2

Record

21-415 (436)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.42

Value

$78.24

PnL

+$0.82

Record

4-156 (160)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.89

Value

$47.45

PnL

+$0.56

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.61

Value

$29.92

PnL

+$0.31

Record

2-34 (36)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.15

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.5

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

32%

68-143 (211)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.02

Record

9-249 (258)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.01

Record

5-123 (128)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.