Spread: Heat (-7.5)

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (41%) · Heat at 56¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 11

Heat56¢Jazz44¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 41%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.5K

Combined PnL

$6.63

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

7 of 17 top traders (41%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat56%

Jazz45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat7 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares33,366

Combined PnL+$211.94

Jazz10 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,076

Combined PnL-$205.31

Heat — 41%Jazz — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (16 on Jazz) disagree here.

sniperHeat 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJazz 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Heatavg 55.1¢	$16.9K	$17.0K	+$136.91	52% 128-119 (247)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 47.5¢	$11.1K	$11.0K	-$90.24	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47.5¢	$7.0K	$6.5K	-$517.08
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 50.7¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$426.84
NM NM-PARB<$100	Heatavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$36.75	60% 3442-2338 (5780)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 55¢	$962.5	$980	+$17.5
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47.9¢	$670.25	$616	-$54.25
GC GC-PARB<$100	Heatavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$36.75	16% 66-350 (416)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 55¢	$962.5	$980	+$17.5
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47.9¢	$670.25	$616	-$54.25
HI hi774cCTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$142.43	8% 37-422 (459)
73 739633786CTR	Jazzavg 43.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$5.87	3% 5-185 (190)
SE sentrioCTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$868.38	$815.99	-$52.39	32% 184-398 (582)
PP ppku6298	Heatavg 50¢	$727	$814.24	+$87.24	0% 0-96 (96)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Heatavg 54¢	$643.82	$667.15	+$23.33	49% 488-513 (1001)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Heatavg 56¢	$592.64	$572.31	-$20.33	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 56¢	$316.14	$316.23	+$0.09
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47.5¢	$276.5	$256.08	-$20.42
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$193.22	$180.89	-$12.33	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Jazzavg 44¢	$176	$176	-$0	10% 85-781 (866)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 43.9¢	$124.63	$124.96	+$0.33	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Heatavg 56¢	$120.42	$118.68	-$1.75	47% 149-168 (317)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 56¢	$80.26	$80.26	-$0
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 46¢	$40.16	$38.42	-$1.75
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jazzavg 47¢	$72.22	$68.47	-$3.75	68% 1593-744 (2337)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$51.92	$51.92	+$0	26% 234-663 (897)
PA Pan9X<$100	Heatavg 53.5¢	$75.24	$30.76	-$2.2	49% 440-464 (904)
HE hewhodoesit<$100	Heatavg 53¢	$18	$19.02	+$1.02	— 2-2 (4)
RJ RJW1CTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$15.92	$15.92	-$0	47% 116-129 (245)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jazzavg 47¢	$9.4	$8.8	-$0.6	56% 119-94 (213)
VeryLucky888	Heatavg 53.4¢	$1.5K	$6.33	-$34.66	50% 262-258 (520)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Heatavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.6	+$0.3	26% 177-517 (694)

nigiri99

Heat

Invested

$16,859.96

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$136.91

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$11,077.33

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$90.24

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Jazz$7,03347.5¢-$517.08

Heat$4,044.3350.7¢+$426.84

NM-PARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,632.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$36.75

Record

60%

3442-2338 (5780)

Both legs:

Heat$962.555¢+$17.5

Jazz$670.2547.9¢-$54.25

GC-PARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,632.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$36.75

Record

16%

66-350 (416)

Both legs:

Heat$962.555¢+$17.5

Jazz$670.2547.9¢-$54.25

hi774cCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,709.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$142.43

Record

37-422 (459)

739633786CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,038.95

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5.87

Record

5-185 (190)

sentrioCTR

Jazz

Invested

$868.38

Value

$815.99

PnL

-$52.39

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

ppku6298

Heat

Invested

$727

Value

$814.24

PnL

+$87.24

Record

0-96 (96)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Heat

Invested

$643.82

Value

$667.15

PnL

+$23.33

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$592.64

Value

$572.31

PnL

-$20.33

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Heat$316.1456¢+$0.09

Jazz$276.547.5¢-$20.42

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$193.22

Value

$180.89

PnL

-$12.33

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Jazz

Invested

$176

Value

$176

PnL

-$0

Record

10%

85-781 (866)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$124.63

Value

$124.96

PnL

+$0.33

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$120.42

Value

$118.68

PnL

-$1.75

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

Both legs:

Invested

$72.22

Value

$68.47

PnL

-$3.75

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$51.92

Value

$51.92

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

Pan9X<$100

Heat

Invested

$75.24

Value

$30.76

PnL

-$2.2

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

hewhodoesit<$100

Heat

Invested

$18

Value

$19.02

PnL

+$1.02

Record

—

2-2 (4)

RJW1CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$15.92

Value

$15.92

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

116-129 (245)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

VeryLucky888

Heat

Invested

$1,458.37

Value

$6.33

PnL

-$34.66

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

ameisgoat11<$100

Heat

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

7 of 17 top traders (41%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (16 on Jazz) disagree here.

sniperHeat 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJazz 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.