Spread: Knicks (-17.5)

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (44%) · Knicks at 66¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 11

Knicks66¢Bucks34¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.5K

Combined PnL

-$313.41

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 66¢

+30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

8 of 18 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks66%

Bucks34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks8 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares28,732

Combined PnL+$5.9K

Bucks10 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares23,629

Combined PnL$-6.3K

Knicks — 44%Bucks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 41¢	$4.9K	$7.8K	+$3.0K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
betdge	Knicksavg 45¢	$3.4K	$6.2K	+$2.8K	45% 19-23 (42)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Knicksavg 70.9¢	$5.4K	$4.8K	-$595.76	56% 488-383 (871)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 23.8¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$698.94	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Bucksavg 58.9¢	$5.9K	$1.8K	$-4.1K	8% 8-94 (102)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Knicksavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$419.14	51% 3680-3510 (7190)
HI hi774cCTR	Bucksavg 57¢	$3.2K	$1.0K	$-2.2K	8% 37-422 (459)
RN1	Knicksavg 55.7¢	$800.03	$798.32	-$1.71	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
65 6512395314597884	Knicksavg 50.7¢	$536.12	$716.14	+$180.02	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Knicksavg 62.5¢	$619.54	$627.98	+$10.19	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 62.5¢	$494.83	$487.07	-$7.76
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 33.4¢	$122.37	$140.91	+$17.95
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Bucksavg 16¢	$190	$504.97	+$314.97	54% 217-188 (405)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 57.4¢	$2.0K	$259.18	-$639.81	51% 300-292 (592)
VE Venusian	Knicksavg 44¢	$121	$225.5	+$104.5	28% 279-730 (1009)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Knicksavg 74.7¢	$352.98	$150.98	-$50.2	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 74.7¢	$124.98	$112.96	-$12.02
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 57¢	$66.69	$38.03	-$38.19
SU suitcase6628	Knicksavg 53¢	$84.8	$132	+$47.2	64% 175-97 (272)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Bucksavg 58¢	$232	$70	-$162	10% 88-785 (873)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bucksavg 53.4¢	$115.01	$37.66	-$77.35	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 57¢	$44.62	$15.36	-$23.77	49% 444-470 (914)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Bucksavg 57¢	$40.16	$12.68	-$27.48	48% 190-206 (396)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 57¢	$2.85	$0.9	-$1.95	26% 181-519 (700)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$4,857.3

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

betdge

Knicks

Invested

$3,375

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

45%

19-23 (42)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Knicks

Invested

$5,358.05

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$595.76

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,129.74

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$698.94

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

luckycat888888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$5,890

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

8-94 (102)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Knicks

Invested

$1,143.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$419.14

Record

51%

3680-3510 (7190)

hi774cCTR

Bucks

Invested

$3,217.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

37-422 (459)

RN1

Knicks

Invested

$800.03

Value

$798.32

PnL

-$1.71

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

6512395314597884

Knicks

Invested

$536.12

Value

$716.14

PnL

+$180.02

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

takeormakeARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$619.54

Value

$627.98

PnL

+$10.19

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

Knicks$494.8362.5¢-$7.76

Bucks$122.3733.4¢+$17.95

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Bucks

Invested

$190

Value

$504.97

PnL

+$314.97

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,998.98

Value

$259.18

PnL

-$639.81

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

Venusian

Knicks

Invested

$121

Value

$225.5

PnL

+$104.5

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$352.98

Value

$150.98

PnL

-$50.2

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Knicks$124.9874.7¢-$12.02

Bucks$66.6957¢-$38.19

suitcase6628

Knicks

Invested

$84.8

Value

$132

PnL

+$47.2

Record

64%

175-97 (272)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Bucks

Invested

$232

Value

$70

PnL

-$162

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bucks

Invested

$115.01

Value

$37.66

PnL

-$77.35

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$44.62

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$23.77

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$40.16

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$27.48

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.85

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$1.95

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

8 of 18 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.