Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 68¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 11

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.4K

Combined PnL

$102.01

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 68¢

+47% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares30,224

Combined PnL+$568.89

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,728

Combined PnL-$466.88

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 45.5¢	$8.3K	$8.3K	+$0.11	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
HI hi774c	Overavg 45¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$100	10% 46-435 (481)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 55¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$390.88	53% 228-199 (427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$1.2K	$865.63	-$347.93	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$621.25	$606.41	-$14.85	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.7¢	$394.99	$374.99	-$20
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$226.26	$231.41	+$5.15
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$499.42	$489.06	-$10.36	17% 75-358 (433)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$274.42	$259.06	-$15.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$225	$230	+$5
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 45¢	$401.9	$410.83	+$8.93	48% 231-247 (478)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 47.1¢	$160.9	$232.37	+$71.47	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 46.5¢	$185.63	$183.73	-$1.9	12% 105-801 (906)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$253.35	$180.16	-$73.19	28% 69-175 (244)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 45¢	$133.46	$94.9	-$38.56	28% 317-800 (1117)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$76.06	$71.75	-$4.31	1% 4-314 (318)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 48¢	$13.95	$13.42	-$0.53	54% 445-377 (822)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 45¢	$10.33	$10.55	+$0.23	39% 136-209 (345)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.94	$9.64	-$0.31	35% 279-508 (787)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.2	+$0	57% 145-111 (256)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 46¢	$6.9	$6.9	+$0	27% 201-533 (734)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.6	$6.7	-$2.9	55% 541-436 (977)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$8,324.5

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$4,500

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$100

Record

10%

46-435 (481)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$1,869.45

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$390.88

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,213.56

Value

$865.63

PnL

-$347.93

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$621.25

Value

$606.41

PnL

-$14.85

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

Both legs:

Under$394.9952.7¢-$20

Over$226.2645¢+$5.15

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$499.42

Value

$489.06

PnL

-$10.36

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

Both legs:

Under$274.4253¢-$15.36

Over$22545¢+$5

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$401.9

Value

$410.83

PnL

+$8.93

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$160.9

Value

$232.37

PnL

+$71.47

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$185.63

Value

$183.73

PnL

-$1.9

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$253.35

Value

$180.16

PnL

-$73.19

Record

28%

69-175 (244)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$133.46

Value

$94.9

PnL

-$38.56

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.06

Value

$71.75

PnL

-$4.31

Record

4-314 (318)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.95

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$0.53

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$10.33

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$0.23

Record

39%

136-209 (345)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.64

PnL

-$0.31

Record

35%

279-508 (787)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

201-533 (734)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.6

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$2.9

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.