Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Magic vs. Kings: O/U 222.5

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 28¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 11

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.1K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 27.5¢

-45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares26,965

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Over9 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares29,208

Combined PnL+$857.33

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 50¢	$6.9K	$9.6K	+$2.8K	26% 12-35 (47)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$79.46	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 52¢	$3.7K	$4.0K	+$353.67	54% 514-436 (950)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$400	0% 0-96 (96)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 51¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$512.04	49% 95-99 (194)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 45.1¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$151.6	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 55.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$208.92	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$222.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.8¢	$413.6	$426.89	+$13.29
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$233.27	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$634.34	$753.28	+$118.94	8% 37-423 (460)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$495	$500	+$5	16% 68-351 (419)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$240	$285	+$45
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$255	$215	-$40
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$495	$500	+$5	60% 3445-2339 (5784)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$240	$285	+$45
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$255	$215	-$40
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 49¢	$196	$228	+$32	10% 89-787 (876)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 55.8¢	$378.04	$224.26	-$153.79	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1CTR	Overavg 50¢	$157.55	$170.93	+$13.38	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
SE sentrio	Underavg 50.8¢	$125.95	$106.55	-$19.39	35% 266-490 (756)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$76.21	$71.25	+$12.04	51% 330-319 (649)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$15.7	$17.33	+$1.63	54% 401-336 (737)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11.21	$10.04	-$1.17	29% 307-750 (1057)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.3	-$0.4	55% 120-99 (219)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$6,891.39

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

26%

12-35 (47)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$7,177.38

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$79.46

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,669.01

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$353.67

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$400

Record

0-96 (96)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$3,264.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$512.04

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,926.39

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$151.6

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,778.94

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$208.92

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Over$1,365.3455.5¢-$222.21

Under$413.651.8¢+$13.29

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,529.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$233.27

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$634.34

Value

$753.28

PnL

+$118.94

Record

37-423 (460)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$495

Value

$500

PnL

+$5

Record

16%

68-351 (419)

Both legs:

Invested

$495

Value

$500

PnL

+$5

Record

60%

3445-2339 (5784)

Both legs:

Over$24048¢+$45

Under$25551¢-$40

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$196

Value

$228

PnL

+$32

Record

10%

89-787 (876)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$378.04

Value

$224.26

PnL

-$153.79

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$157.55

Value

$170.93

PnL

+$13.38

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$125.95

Value

$106.55

PnL

-$19.39

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.21

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$12.04

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.7

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$1.63

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$11.21

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$1.17

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.