Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Bulls (61%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-10.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (64%) · 76ers at 40¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

76ers40¢Bulls60¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 64%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$202.79

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 39.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers40%

Bulls61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers9 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares8,925

Combined PnL+$169.23

Bulls5 traders

Total Value$369.87

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$33.56

76ers — 64%Bulls — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Bullsavg 46¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$192.92	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$315.16
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 45.8¢	$1.0K	$927.51	-$122.25
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	76ersavg 45¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$166.25	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 25.2¢	$870.04	$1.4K	+$500.94	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	76ersavg 49¢	$615.7	$601.38	-$14.32	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 52.4¢	$302.97	$349.52	+$46.55
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 49¢	$312.73	$251.86	-$60.87
JU justaluckydudeCTR	76ersavg 54¢	$554.3	$415.76	-$138.54	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 44.1¢	$340.32	$327.79	-$12.53	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 44.1¢	$274.01	$251.63	-$22.38
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51.8¢	$66.31	$76.16	+$9.85
CH ch27er	Bullsavg 58.2¢	$227.34	$230.37	+$3.02	56% 48-38 (86)
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 44.8¢	$92.26	$122.57	+$30.31	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
LI LightParadoxCTR	76ersavg 45¢	$109.62	$116.15	+$6.53	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	76ersavg 53.1¢	$115.97	$108.49	-$7.47	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 48.4¢	$44.08	$55.06	+$10.98
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53.1¢	$71.89	$53.44	-$18.45
PA Pan9XARB<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$116.57	$107.34	-$6.58	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 47¢	$93.57	$80.56	-$13.01
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46¢	$20.7	$26.78	+$6.42
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	76ersavg 44¢	$77.68	$79.46	+$1.79	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$66.75	$58.77	-$7.98	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$66.75	$58.77	-$7.98	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	76ersavg 56¢	$70	$50.63	-$19.38	53% 3775-3371 (7146)
0xheavy888<$100	Bullsavg 55¢	$11	$11.1	+$0.1	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
AN Anon455<$100	Bullsavg 57¢	$2.93	$3.06	+$0.13	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bullsavg 55¢	$2.78	$2.78	+$0	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 45¢	$1.84	$1.95	+$0.11	50% 48590-48183 (96773)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2,126.23

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$192.92

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

Both legs:

Bulls$1,076.4746¢+$315.16

76ers$1,049.7645.8¢-$122.25

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,799.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$166.25

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$870.04

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$500.94

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$615.7

Value

$601.38

PnL

-$14.32

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Both legs:

Bulls$302.9752.4¢+$46.55

76ers$312.7349¢-$60.87

justaluckydudeCTR

76ers

Invested

$554.3

Value

$415.76

PnL

-$138.54

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$340.32

Value

$327.79

PnL

-$12.53

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Both legs:

76ers$274.0144.1¢-$22.38

Bulls$66.3151.8¢+$9.85

ch27er

Bulls

Invested

$227.34

Value

$230.37

PnL

+$3.02

Record

56%

48-38 (86)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$92.26

Value

$122.57

PnL

+$30.31

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

LightParadoxCTR

76ers

Invested

$109.62

Value

$116.15

PnL

+$6.53

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

takeormakeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$115.97

Value

$108.49

PnL

-$7.47

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

Both legs:

Bulls$44.0848.4¢+$10.98

76ers$71.8953.1¢-$18.45

Pan9XARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$116.57

Value

$107.34

PnL

-$6.58

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Both legs:

76ers$93.5747¢-$13.01

Bulls$20.746¢+$6.42

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$77.68

Value

$79.46

PnL

+$1.79

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$66.75

Value

$58.77

PnL

-$7.98

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

LimousinCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$66.75

Value

$58.77

PnL

-$7.98

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$70

Value

$50.63

PnL

-$19.38

Record

53%

3775-3371 (7146)

0xheavy888<$100

Bulls

Invested

$11

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Anon455<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.