Spread: Bengals (-2.5)

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (33%) · Bengals at 95¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 8

Bengals95¢Falcons5¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.9K

Combined PnL

$6.4K

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 95¢

+67% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 18 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals95%

Falcons5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals6 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares33,274

Combined PnL+$8.0K

Falcons12 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares6,444

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Bengals — 33%Falcons — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-58 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 57% · 7

Diverging

ctrFalcons 75% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 76% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Bengalsavg 57¢	$18.2K	$25.8K	+$7.6K	49% 507-531 (1038)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Falconsavg 41.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$1.19	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 50.5¢	$752.17	$1.2K	+$453.51
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 41.4¢	$835.17	$382.85	-$452.32
FE ferrariChampions2026	Bengalsavg 56.7¢	$443.85	$731.51	+$287.65	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Falconsavg 50¢	$849.75	$331.4	-$518.35	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Falconsavg 42¢	$1.6K	$298.74	-$379.48	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
65 6512395314597884	Bengalsavg 57.9¢	$152.88	$241.13	+$88.25	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Falconsavg 42¢	$226.7	$230.03	+$3.32	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 57¢	$93.84	$132.53	+$0.82
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 42¢	$210	$97.5	+$2.5
HO HomeRunHazard	Bengalsavg 55¢	$212.04	$218.79	+$6.75	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$600	$117	-$141	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$100.86	$100.73	-$0.13	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bengalsavg 75.4¢	$77.71	$78.08	+$0.36	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
RN1CTR	Falconsavg 42.3¢	$591.49	$62.89	-$528.6	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Falconsavg 45¢	$58.07	$51.32	-$6.75	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
TA takeormakeCTR	Falconsavg 55.9¢	$185	$35.15	-$68.25	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Bengalsavg 55.5¢	$21.56	$31.46	+$9.9	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Falconsavg 46¢	$58.13	$11.34	-$15.4	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Falconsavg 44¢	$75.78	$9.8	-$11.23	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Falconsavg 44¢	$42	$8.19	-$10.29	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Falconsavg 16¢	$1.64	$0.67	-$0.97	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
dips.CTR<$100	Falconsavg 44¢	$0.81	$0.36	-$0.45	46% 12026-13917 (25943)

Multicoloured-Serf

Bengals

Invested

$18,151.51

Value

$25.8K

PnL

+$7.6K

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

Anon455ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1,587.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.19

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Bengals$752.1750.5¢+$453.51

Falcons$835.1741.4¢-$452.32

ferrariChampions2026

Bengals

Invested

$443.85

Value

$731.51

PnL

+$287.65

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Falcons

Invested

$849.75

Value

$331.4

PnL

-$518.35

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

SunlineTickerCTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,614.81

Value

$298.74

PnL

-$379.48

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

6512395314597884

Bengals

Invested

$152.88

Value

$241.13

PnL

+$88.25

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

NM-PARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$226.7

Value

$230.03

PnL

+$3.32

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Bengals$93.8457¢+$0.82

Falcons$21042¢+$2.5

HomeRunHazard

Bengals

Invested

$212.04

Value

$218.79

PnL

+$6.75

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Falcons

Invested

$600

Value

$117

PnL

-$141

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$100.86

Value

$100.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9X<$100

Bengals

Invested

$77.71

Value

$78.08

PnL

+$0.36

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

RN1CTR

Falcons

Invested

$591.49

Value

$62.89

PnL

-$528.6

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

HerdoniaCTR

Falcons

Invested

$58.07

Value

$51.32

PnL

-$6.75

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

takeormakeCTR

Falcons

Invested

$185

Value

$35.15

PnL

-$68.25

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Bengals

Invested

$21.56

Value

$31.46

PnL

+$9.9

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

LimousinCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$58.13

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$15.4

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$75.78

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$11.23

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$42

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$10.29

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0.97

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

dips.CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.45

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 18 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-58 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 57% · 7

Diverging

ctrFalcons 75% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 76% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.