Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (81%) · Colts at 94¢ · $69K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys6¢Colts94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 81%

Total Value

$68.5K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 94¢

+56% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys6%

Colts94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts17 traders

Total Value$60.7K

Total Shares81,033

Combined PnL+$5.7K

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares18,305

Combined PnL-$607.51

Colts — 81%Cowboys — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrColts 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Coltsavg 67¢	$29.4K	$31.8K	+$2.4K	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
ST stackingsats	Coltsavg 49.5¢	$9.9K	$14.3K	+$948.87	47% 364-404 (768)
RN1	Coltsavg 56¢	$5.9K	$6.9K	+$1.0K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Cowboysavg 50.8¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$40.22	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Cowboysavg 41.2¢	$3.9K	$1.9K	-$535.66	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
AN Anon455	Coltsavg 47.1¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$386.62	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
unknowngambler	Coltsavg 65¢	$969.8	$1.1K	+$111.9	57% 442-333 (775)
65 6512395314597884	Coltsavg 52.1¢	$893.81	$960.22	+$66.42	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
38 38791873984189	Coltsavg 60.6¢	$842	$864	+$83.25	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
JU justaluckydude	Coltsavg 45.7¢	$393.54	$774.14	+$380.6	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Coltsavg 74.6¢	$792.17	$685.17	-$107	54% 1452-1257 (2709)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Coltsavg 48¢	$381.5	$541.4	+$159.9	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
RollAwayTheDew	Coltsavg 65¢	$390	$435	+$45	54% 591-501 (1092)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Coltsavg 50¢	$232.25	$290	+$57.75	56% 195-151 (346)
GA Gaditima	Coltsavg 67¢	$208.82	$286.73	+$77.92	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
PA Pan9X	Coltsavg 56.7¢	$139.58	$106.04	-$3.36	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
TA takeormake<$100	Coltsavg 43.7¢	$18.46	$32.49	+$14.03	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Coltsavg 52.5¢	$15.75	$27.6	+$11.85	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 50¢	$49.02	$25	-$24.02	46% 942-1118 (2060)
RL RLWG<$100	Coltsavg 58¢	$2.9	$4.6	+$1.7	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 55.5¢	$11.11	$0.88	-$7.61	57% 24661-18268 (42929)

nigiri99

Colts

Invested

$29,350.14

Value

$31.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

stackingsats

Colts

Invested

$9,901.06

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$948.87

Record

47%

364-404 (768)

RN1

Colts

Invested

$5,918.8

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$5,964.02

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$40.22

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$3,872.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$535.66

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Anon455

Colts

Invested

$1,223.74

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$386.62

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

unknowngambler

Colts

Invested

$969.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$111.9

Record

57%

442-333 (775)

6512395314597884

Colts

Invested

$893.81

Value

$960.22

PnL

+$66.42

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

38791873984189

Colts

Invested

$842

Value

$864

PnL

+$83.25

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

justaluckydude

Colts

Invested

$393.54

Value

$774.14

PnL

+$380.6

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Colts

Invested

$792.17

Value

$685.17

PnL

-$107

Record

54%

1452-1257 (2709)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Colts

Invested

$381.5

Value

$541.4

PnL

+$159.9

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

RollAwayTheDew

Colts

Invested

$390

Value

$435

PnL

+$45

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Colts

Invested

$232.25

Value

$290

PnL

+$57.75

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Gaditima

Colts

Invested

$208.82

Value

$286.73

PnL

+$77.92

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

Pan9X

Colts

Invested

$139.58

Value

$106.04

PnL

-$3.36

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

takeormake<$100

Colts

Invested

$18.46

Value

$32.49

PnL

+$14.03

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Colts

Invested

$15.75

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$11.85

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$49.02

Value

$25

PnL

-$24.02

Record

46%

942-1118 (2060)

RLWG<$100

Colts

Invested

$2.9

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.7

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$11.11

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$7.61

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrColts 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.