Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 76¢ · $68K held · ended Nov 11

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$68.2K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 76¢

+35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$57.6K

Total Shares74,970

Combined PnL+$13.5K

Under14 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares45,380

Combined PnL$-9.2K

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 81% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 57.1¢	$22.5K	$30.0K	+$7.4K	52% 128-120 (248)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 56.1¢	$13.1K	$17.7K	+$4.6K	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 55¢	$6.0K	$6.7K	+$743.82	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$9.6K	$5.0K	$-4.6K	47% 500-558 (1058)
RO royalestake	Overavg 51.8¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$728.81	1% 2-178 (180)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 43¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.2K	41% 113-161 (274)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 42¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	$-1.0K	8% 37-422 (459)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$1.6K	$843.87	-$739	55% 119-96 (215)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 42.7¢	$1.3K	$694.89	-$593.83	51% 299-291 (590)
VI vibing123CTR	Underavg 42¢	$894.6	$511.2	-$383.4	63% 1078-642 (1720)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 44¢	$880	$480	-$400	10% 88-785 (873)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 43¢	$358.88	$191.96	-$166.92	48% 190-206 (396)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 41.7¢	$193.87	$116.86	-$77.01	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48¢	$139.68	$93.12	-$46.56	48% 947-1017 (1964)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$21.66	$18.4	-$3.26	49% 443-470 (913)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 43.4¢	$29.1	$15.43	-$13.67	54% 383-321 (704)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$15	$8.62	-$6.37	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.7	$2.3	-$2.4	26% 180-518 (698)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$22,532.53

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$13,100.56

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,961.06

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$743.82

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$9,583.89

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

royalestake

Over

Invested

$2,487.65

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$728.81

Record

2-178 (180)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$2,508.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

41%

113-161 (274)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$2,265.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

37-422 (459)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,582.86

Value

$843.87

PnL

-$739

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,288.72

Value

$694.89

PnL

-$593.83

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

vibing123CTR

Under

Invested

$894.6

Value

$511.2

PnL

-$383.4

Record

63%

1078-642 (1720)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$880

Value

$480

PnL

-$400

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$358.88

Value

$191.96

PnL

-$166.92

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$193.87

Value

$116.86

PnL

-$77.01

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$139.68

Value

$93.12

PnL

-$46.56

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.66

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$3.26

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.1

Value

$15.43

PnL

-$13.67

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$6.37

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$2.4

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 81% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.