Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Red Wings, while the market favors Avalanche (95%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Red Wings vs. Avalanche

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (41%) · Red Wings at 5.5¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Red Wings6¢Avalanche94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Red Wings

Consensus Traders

Red Wings 41%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$644.23

Smart Money Entry

33.5¢ → 5.5¢

-84% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRed Wings at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Red Wings6%

Avalanche95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Red Wings7 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares18,097

Combined PnL-$395.66

Avalanche10 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,210

Combined PnL-$248.57

Red Wings — 41%Avalanche — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalestakeCTR	Red Wingsavg 33.6¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	-$362.18	47% 416-463 (879)
RN1	Avalancheavg 93.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$76.94	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Avalancheavg 87.8¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$324.78	48% 405-446 (851)
BI BillBenter2026	Avalancheavg 82.1¢	$475.85	$540.97	+$65.12	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
38 38791873984189	Avalancheavg 82.2¢	$393.28	$452.81	+$59.53	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Avalancheavg 75.8¢	$372.89	$383.58	+$10.69	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
NO NordhavenCapARB<$100	Red Wingsavg 38.6¢	$1.4K	$304.98	-$720.39	57% 2487-1893 (4380)
└ Red Wings leg	Red Wingsavg 38.6¢	$947.97	$233.26	-$723.84
└ Avalanche leg	Avalancheavg 81.5¢	$64.6	$71.72	+$3.45
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Red Wingsavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
PA Pan9X	Avalancheavg 81.6¢	$126.51	$80.87	+$12.65	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
KnureKnume<$100	Avalancheavg 68.1¢	$54.48	$54.8	+$0.32	48% 410-450 (860)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 19.6¢	$66.76	$44.45	-$22.31	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Avalancheavg 84¢	$36.98	$41.6	+$4.62	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 27¢	$27	$36	+$9	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 41.2¢	$10.3	$7.88	-$2.43	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 23.2¢	$16.7	$6.12	-$10.58	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Avalancheavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.43	+$0.13	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Avalancheavg 90¢	$1.8	$1.89	+$0.09	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
US User7429CTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 40¢	$8.82	$1.65	-$7.17	56% 9429-7491 (16920)

royalestakeCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$5,868.82

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$362.18

Record

47%

416-463 (879)

RN1

Avalanche

Invested

$1,862.02

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$76.94

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Multicoloured-Serf

Avalanche

Invested

$1,990

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$324.78

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

BillBenter2026

Avalanche

Invested

$475.85

Value

$540.97

PnL

+$65.12

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

38791873984189

Avalanche

Invested

$393.28

Value

$452.81

PnL

+$59.53

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Avalanche

Invested

$372.89

Value

$383.58

PnL

+$10.69

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

NordhavenCapARB<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$1,354.23

Value

$304.98

PnL

-$720.39

Record

57%

2487-1893 (4380)

Both legs:

Red Wings$947.9738.6¢-$723.84

Avalanche$64.681.5¢+$3.45

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Pan9X

Avalanche

Invested

$126.51

Value

$80.87

PnL

+$12.65

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

KnureKnume<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$54.48

Value

$54.8

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

410-450 (860)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$66.76

Value

$44.45

PnL

-$22.31

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

justaluckydude<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$36.98

Value

$41.6

PnL

+$4.62

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$27

Value

$36

PnL

+$9

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$10.3

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$2.43

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$16.7

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$10.58

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

ameisgoat11<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

BoomLaLa<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

User7429CTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$8.82

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$7.17

Record

56%

9429-7491 (16920)

Research grade

AvoidRed Wings at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Red Wings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.