Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 12 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Moquegua end in a draw?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 9

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares8,127

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$872.59

Total Shares885

Combined PnL+$456.21

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 59.7¢	$5.2K	$4.8K	-$389.72	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 41.5¢	$277.36	$598.62	+$321.27	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 81.4¢	$337.62	$339.32	+$1.69	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 48.4¢	$126.57	$261.39	+$134.82	71% 18414-7581 (25995)
A4 0xa466...1c77CTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$245.66	$234	-$11.66	—
VE VenusianARB<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$281.47	$232.3	-$49.16	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.7¢	$229.76	$178.44	-$51.37
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$51.66	$53.87	+$2.21
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 81¢	$226.67	$89.47	-$137.19	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 27.8¢	$109.3	$58.58	-$50.73	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 84¢	$368.75	$40.91	-$327.84	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 74.6¢	$537.71	$19.95	-$534.36	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$10	$10.1	+$0.1	65% 25418-13617 (39035)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 92¢	$11.96	$9.82	-$2.15	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$2.45	$2.48	+$0.02	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
dips.CTR	Noavg 46¢	$224.94	$0.24	-$224.7	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 12.5¢	$12.5	$0.05	-$12.45	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$20.02	$0.02	-$20	47% 6237-6947 (13184)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$2.6	$0.01	-$2.6	52% 6060-5587 (11647)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$5,162.43

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$389.72

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$277.36

Value

$598.62

PnL

+$321.27

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$337.62

Value

$339.32

PnL

+$1.69

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$126.57

Value

$261.39

PnL

+$134.82

Record

71%

18414-7581 (25995)

0xa466...1c77CTR

Invested

$245.66

Value

$234

PnL

-$11.66

Record

—

VenusianARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$281.47

Value

$232.3

PnL

-$49.16

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Both legs:

Yes$229.7618.7¢-$51.37

No$51.6682¢+$2.21

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$226.67

Value

$89.47

PnL

-$137.19

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$109.3

Value

$58.58

PnL

-$50.73

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$368.75

Value

$40.91

PnL

-$327.84

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$537.71

Value

$19.95

PnL

-$534.36

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

65%

25418-13617 (39035)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$11.96

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$2.15

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

dips.CTR

Invested

$224.94

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$224.7

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$12.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$12.45

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$20

Record

47%

6237-6947 (13184)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.6

Record

52%

6060-5587 (11647)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.