Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-08?

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (37%) · Yes at 91¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 8

Yes91¢No9¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 37%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 90.5¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 19 top traders (37%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$42.9K

Total Shares48,612

Combined PnL+$469.16

No12 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares36,999

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Yes — 37%No — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO notgoodluck	Yesavg 81.3¢	$24.8K	$25.2K	+$363.66	63% 247-148 (395)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 82.5¢	$11.0K	$10.7K	-$370.9	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
RN1	Yesavg 82.7¢	$4.5K	$5.0K	+$477.08	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 18¢	$5.0K	$2.4K	$-2.6K	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 17.4¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$875.58	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
└ No leg	Noavg 17.4¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$872.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 91¢	$573.08	$569.93	-$3.15
SH SharkVision	Yesavg 91¢	$994.54	$994.36	-$0.18	70% 1498-631 (2129)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 82.2¢	$826.42	$593.4	-$34.9	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 18¢	$389.97	$380.17	-$9.79	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 82.4¢	$422.11	$281.33	+$20.88	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 86.6¢	$240.54	$254.06	+$13.52	71% 18402-7575 (25977)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 17.6¢	$394.31	$190.19	-$204.12	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 18.1¢	$170.75	$174.35	+$3.6	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 17.3¢	$310.47	$152.53	-$157.94	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 21¢	$152.27	$133.23	-$19.03	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 20.8¢	$147.68	$131.55	-$16.13	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$72	$74	+$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 19.1¢	$39.01	$37.64	-$1.37	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 18.3¢	$27.33	$12.71	-$14.62	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$5.7	$5.25	-$0.45	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$0.96	$1.05	+$0.09	53% 2982-2598 (5580)

notgoodluck

Yes

Invested

$24,788.76

Value

$25.2K

PnL

+$363.66

Record

63%

247-148 (395)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$11,024.08

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$370.9

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$4,507.54

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$477.08

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$5,012.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,493.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$875.58

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Both legs:

No$1,920.8917.4¢-$872.43

Yes$573.0891¢-$3.15

SharkVision

Yes

Invested

$994.54

Value

$994.36

PnL

-$0.18

Record

70%

1498-631 (2129)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$826.42

Value

$593.4

PnL

-$34.9

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$389.97

Value

$380.17

PnL

-$9.79

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$422.11

Value

$281.33

PnL

+$20.88

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$240.54

Value

$254.06

PnL

+$13.52

Record

71%

18402-7575 (25977)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$394.31

Value

$190.19

PnL

-$204.12

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$170.75

Value

$174.35

PnL

+$3.6

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$310.47

Value

$152.53

PnL

-$157.94

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$152.27

Value

$133.23

PnL

-$19.03

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$147.68

Value

$131.55

PnL

-$16.13

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$74

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$39.01

Value

$37.64

PnL

-$1.37

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$27.33

Value

$12.71

PnL

-$14.62

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$0.96

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2982-2598 (5580)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 19 top traders (37%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.