Will Abha Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 99.5¢

+55% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,396

Combined PnL+$5.1K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$231.8

Total Shares11,288

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 7.9¢	$507.97	$2.6K	+$4.9K	45% 1792-2187 (3979)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 94.5¢	$3.6K	$2.0K	+$100.32	54% 12443-10706 (23149)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 96.9¢	$2.4K	$917.09	+$55.11	61% 960-605 (1565)
xxNyx	Noavg 98.4¢	$2.5K	$871.36	+$24	82% 1815-404 (2219)
DI dips.	Noavg 89.9¢	$344.54	$376.26	+$36.51	47% 10627-12138 (22765)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Noavg 97.6¢	$364.17	$361.44	+$5.9	83% 89-18 (107)
morito181	Noavg 96.2¢	$123.62	$126.19	+$3.73	61% 875-556 (1431)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$552.23	$113.57	-$384.63	48% 61176-65982 (127158)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 13.2¢	$434.17	$44.01	-$183.83	58% 46694-33653 (80347)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$25.21	$25.21	-$389.94	67% 27463-13818 (41281)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$14.51	$25.19	+$10.69	19% 2871-12245 (15116)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$50.06	$16.79	-$42.22	50% 21174-21437 (42611)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$62.54	$5.65	-$56.89	62% 777-468 (1245)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.04	$0.84	-$12.99	38% 7141-11763 (18904)
ME merodCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$875.4	$0.55	+$0.35	34% 3308-6340 (9648)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$507.97

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

45%

1792-2187 (3979)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$3,565.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$100.32

Record

54%

12443-10706 (23149)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$2,408.81

Value

$917.09

PnL

+$55.11

Record

61%

960-605 (1565)

xxNyx

Invested

$2,495.38

Value

$871.36

PnL

+$24

Record

82%

1815-404 (2219)

dips.

Invested

$344.54

Value

$376.26

PnL

+$36.51

Record

47%

10627-12138 (22765)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Invested

$364.17

Value

$361.44

PnL

+$5.9

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

morito181

Invested

$123.62

Value

$126.19

PnL

+$3.73

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$552.23

Value

$113.57

PnL

-$384.63

Record

48%

61176-65982 (127158)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$434.17

Value

$44.01

PnL

-$183.83

Record

58%

46694-33653 (80347)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.21

Value

$25.21

PnL

-$389.94

Record

67%

27463-13818 (41281)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.51

Value

$25.19

PnL

+$10.69

Record

19%

2871-12245 (15116)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.06

Value

$16.79

PnL

-$42.22

Record

50%

21174-21437 (42611)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.54

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$56.89

Record

62%

777-468 (1245)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$12.99

Record

38%

7141-11763 (18904)

merodCTR

Yes

Invested

$875.4

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

34%

3308-6340 (9648)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.