Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Diraiyah Saudi Club end in a draw?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 7

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.3K

Combined PnL

$14.5K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 98.6¢

+82% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$31.7K

Total Shares32,338

Combined PnL+$16.0K

No5 traders

Total Value$124.73

Total Shares5,286

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT btna	Yesavg 53.1¢	$6.9K	$12.7K	+$5.8K	69% 42-19 (61)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 29.7¢	$1.9K	$6.2K	+$4.3K	60% 186-123 (309)
DI dips.	Yesavg 95.7¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$95.69	47% 10561-12091 (22652)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 37.8¢	$1.2K	$3.0K	+$1.9K	51% 174-169 (343)
morito181	Yesavg 41.6¢	$1.2K	$2.8K	+$1.6K	61% 871-555 (1426)
xxNyx	Yesavg 84.1¢	$937.01	$980.01	+$43	82% 1809-404 (2213)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 73.9¢	$372.38	$493.65	+$118.75	61% 928-600 (1528)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$6.4K	$455.11	$-5.9K	51% 25532-24237 (49769)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.7¢	$6.3K	$267.91	$-6.0K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$63.36	$187.2	+$124.03
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 90.9¢	$432.73	$418.42	-$1.07	50% 21082-21326 (42408)
shineforever<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$24.97	$76.46	+$51.11	58% 87-64 (151)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 28.4¢	$546.86	$61.02	-$485.84	48% 60671-65334 (126005)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 39¢	$1.4K	$59.23	+$2.1K	— 4-0 (4)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 73¢	$1.4K	$33.75	-$951.75	58% 46229-33359 (79588)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 3.3¢	$39.45	$23.99	-$15.46	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$98.74	$5.64	-$91.68	63% 764-453 (1217)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$10.02	$0.33	-$9.69	72% 2469-944 (3413)

btna

Yes

Invested

$6,905.3

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

69%

42-19 (61)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,904.46

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

60%

186-123 (309)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$4,729.68

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$95.69

Record

47%

10561-12091 (22652)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$1,163.36

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

51%

174-169 (343)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$1,209.48

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

61%

871-555 (1426)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$937.01

Value

$980.01

PnL

+$43

Record

82%

1809-404 (2213)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$372.38

Value

$493.65

PnL

+$118.75

Record

61%

928-600 (1528)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$6,361

Value

$455.11

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

51%

25532-24237 (49769)

Both legs:

No$6,286.2558.7¢$-6.0K

Yes$63.3633¢+$124.03

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$432.73

Value

$418.42

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

21082-21326 (42408)

shineforever<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.97

Value

$76.46

PnL

+$51.11

Record

58%

87-64 (151)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$546.86

Value

$61.02

PnL

-$485.84

Record

48%

60671-65334 (126005)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$1,414.44

Value

$59.23

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,350

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$951.75

Record

58%

46229-33359 (79588)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$39.45

Value

$23.99

PnL

-$15.46

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$98.74

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$91.68

Record

63%

764-453 (1217)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$9.69

Record

72%

2469-944 (3413)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.