Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 73¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 3

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

-$582.06

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 73¢

+11% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 15 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares17,098

Combined PnL-$758.58

Under11 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares25,444

Combined PnL+$176.52

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI FinalOrderCTR	Overavg 48¢	$7.5K	$6.8K	-$702.33	47% 226-260 (486)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 67.1¢	$5.3K	$5.9K	+$597.87	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
RN1	Underavg 70.6¢	$6.4K	$5.6K	-$800.74	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 60.2¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$359.28	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 63.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$54.69	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.4¢	$789.76	$753.12	-$36.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 32¢	$387.54	$478.87	+$91.32
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$16.86	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$530	$545	+$15
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.3¢	$494.55	$496.41	+$1.86
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 57.6¢	$912.65	$488.08	+$105.91	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.6¢	$282.02	$315.72	+$65.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 27.1¢	$131.68	$172.37	+$40.68
SU suntori	Underavg 57¢	$389.38	$372.33	-$17.04	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 50.8¢	$316.71	$345.74	+$29.03	48% 5181-5695 (10876)
AS astapzippoCTR	Overavg 33.3¢	$331.91	$268.89	-$63.02	56% 2189-1727 (3916)
poshposh	Underavg 51¢	$248.82	$265.66	+$16.84	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 79¢	$226.25	$223.29	-$2.97	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 53.3¢	$148.61	$152.03	+$3.41	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 57.2¢	$100.46	$97.42	-$3.04	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 18.7¢	$49.66	$55.65	+$5.99	52% 830-771 (1601)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 18.2¢	$28.38	$32.66	+$0.78	53% 916-813 (1729)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 79.9¢	$29.18	$23.19	-$5.99	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 62.2¢	$11.19	$11.07	-$0.12	46% 1298-1511 (2809)

FinalOrderCTR

Over

Invested

$7,524.02

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$702.33

Record

47%

226-260 (486)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$5,284.58

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$597.87

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

RN1

Under

Invested

$6,416.67

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$800.74

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$4,041.92

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$359.28

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,177.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$54.69

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

Both legs:

Under$789.7663.4¢-$36.64

Over$387.5432¢+$91.32

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,024.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$16.86

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

Both legs:

Under$53053¢+$15

Over$494.5545.3¢+$1.86

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$912.65

Value

$488.08

PnL

+$105.91

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Under$282.0257.6¢+$65.23

Over$131.6827.1¢+$40.68

suntori

Under

Invested

$389.38

Value

$372.33

PnL

-$17.04

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$316.71

Value

$345.74

PnL

+$29.03

Record

48%

5181-5695 (10876)

astapzippoCTR

Over

Invested

$331.91

Value

$268.89

PnL

-$63.02

Record

56%

2189-1727 (3916)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$248.82

Value

$265.66

PnL

+$16.84

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$226.25

Value

$223.29

PnL

-$2.97

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$148.61

Value

$152.03

PnL

+$3.41

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$100.46

Value

$97.42

PnL

-$3.04

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.66

Value

$55.65

PnL

+$5.99

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.38

Value

$32.66

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$29.18

Value

$23.19

PnL

-$5.99

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$11.19

Value

$11.07

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

1298-1511 (2809)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 15 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.