US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

-$452.09

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 78.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares17,047

Combined PnL-$722.46

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares13,047

Combined PnL+$270.37

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pIebe	Noavg 83.5¢	$14.3K	$11.5K	-$696.28	—
PB pbshine	Noavg 79.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.5	— 0-3 (3)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 16.1¢	$727.94	$861.19	+$133.25	— 0-2 (2)
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$800	$774.22	-$25.78	0% 0-32 (32)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$658.44	$651.69	-$6.75	— 0-12 (12)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.8¢	$545.93	$511.58	-$34.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.3¢	$112.51	$140.11	+$27.6
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$518.73	$534.24	+$15.51	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.9¢	$420.67	$371.29	-$49.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.9¢	$98.06	$162.95	+$64.89
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$280	$380	+$100	0% 0-332 (332)
Robbb	Noavg 86.8¢	$312.58	$280.78	-$31.8	— 1-0 (1)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$250.18	$268.95	+$18.76	—
GH ghorrock	Noavg 81.9¢	$252.79	$222.64	-$0.42	51% 265-255 (520)
32 328.400.fundCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$153.17	$194.01	+$40.84	55% 42-34 (76)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 86¢	$106.92	$98.71	-$4.3	— 1-9 (10)
HU hugecaulk<$100	Noavg 79¢	$92.88	$91.7	-$1.18	— 0-19 (19)
HoshinoAIARB<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$1.8K	$85.05	-$4.66	— 10-8 (18)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.3¢	$30.89	$43.41	-$0.46
└ No leg	Noavg 82.5¢	$43.78	$41.64	-$4.21
Tenebrus7	Noavg 78¢	$389.99	$84.37	+$24.02	0% 0-41 (41)
ZaratustraCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$70	$30.72	+$8.08	—
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$107.94	$1.18	-$4.79	— 12-2 (14)

pIebe

Invested

$14,304.79

Value

$11.5K

PnL

-$696.28

Record

—

pbshine

Invested

$1,190

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

—

0-3 (3)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$727.94

Value

$861.19

PnL

+$133.25

Record

—

0-2 (2)

M2sx92kljs42CTR

Yes

Invested

$800

Value

$774.22

PnL

-$25.78

Record

0-32 (32)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$658.44

Value

$651.69

PnL

-$6.75

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

No$545.9383.8¢-$34.35

Yes$112.5117.3¢+$27.6

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$518.73

Value

$534.24

PnL

+$15.51

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

Both legs:

No$420.6788.9¢-$49.39

Yes$98.0612.9¢+$64.89

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$280

Value

$380

PnL

+$100

Record

0-332 (332)

Robbb

Invested

$312.58

Value

$280.78

PnL

-$31.8

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$250.18

Value

$268.95

PnL

+$18.76

Record

—

ghorrock

Invested

$252.79

Value

$222.64

PnL

-$0.42

Record

51%

265-255 (520)

328.400.fundCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.17

Value

$194.01

PnL

+$40.84

Record

55%

42-34 (76)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$106.92

Value

$98.71

PnL

-$4.3

Record

—

1-9 (10)

hugecaulk<$100

Invested

$92.88

Value

$91.7

PnL

-$1.18

Record

—

0-19 (19)

HoshinoAIARB<$100

Invested

$1,796.08

Value

$85.05

PnL

-$4.66

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Both legs:

Yes$30.8915.3¢-$0.46

No$43.7882.5¢-$4.21

Tenebrus7

Invested

$389.99

Value

$84.37

PnL

+$24.02

Record

0-41 (41)

ZaratustraCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70

Value

$30.72

PnL

+$8.08

Record

—

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.94

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$4.79

Record

—

12-2 (14)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.5%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.