Will Sparta Prague win on 2026-11-11?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$179.46

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 81.3¢

-16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,655

Combined PnL-$245.34

Yes5 traders

Total Value$146.58

Total Shares754

Combined PnL+$65.88

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96¢	$509.5	$426.38	-$83.13	31% 2830-6233 (9063)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 98.2¢	$413.51	$365.35	-$48.16	45% 446-539 (985)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 97.7¢	$238.54	$196.26	-$42.28	44% 427-535 (962)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 94.8¢	$154.41	$130.86	-$23.54	53% 1614-1416 (3030)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 96.5¢	$110.95	$92.43	-$18.53	47% 436-490 (926)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$86.06	$70.86	-$15.2	49% 412-428 (840)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$77.93	$67.91	-$10.02	42% 743-1014 (1757)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$5.1	$60.03	+$54.93	12% 25-176 (201)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$54.51	$56.49	+$1.99	53% 5758-5142 (10900)
└ No leg	Noavg 97.2¢	$39.27	$32.47	-$6.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.7¢	$15.24	$24.02	+$8.78
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$26.74	$39.07	+$12.33	45% 267-323 (590)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.68	$24.51	-$4.17	50% 395-390 (785)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$26.58	$22.51	-$4.07	30% 385-880 (1265)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$16.09	$16.17	+$0.08	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$6.2	$8.81	+$2.6	38% 137-223 (360)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 89¢	$3.29	$2.97	-$0.32	43% 2563-3356 (5919)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$509.5

Value

$426.38

PnL

-$83.13

Record

31%

2830-6233 (9063)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$413.51

Value

$365.35

PnL

-$48.16

Record

45%

446-539 (985)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$238.54

Value

$196.26

PnL

-$42.28

Record

44%

427-535 (962)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$154.41

Value

$130.86

PnL

-$23.54

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$110.95

Value

$92.43

PnL

-$18.53

Record

47%

436-490 (926)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$86.06

Value

$70.86

PnL

-$15.2

Record

49%

412-428 (840)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$77.93

Value

$67.91

PnL

-$10.02

Record

42%

743-1014 (1757)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$60.03

PnL

+$54.93

Record

12%

25-176 (201)

cigarettesARB<$100

Invested

$54.51

Value

$56.49

PnL

+$1.99

Record

53%

5758-5142 (10900)

Both legs:

Invested

$26.74

Value

$39.07

PnL

+$12.33

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$28.68

Value

$24.51

PnL

-$4.17

Record

50%

395-390 (785)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.58

Value

$22.51

PnL

-$4.07

Record

30%

385-880 (1265)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.09

Value

$16.17

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$2.6

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$3.29

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.32

Record

43%

2563-3356 (5919)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.1%

81.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.