Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $685 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

Total Value

$684.84

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 0.3¢

-83% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$437.03

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$12.76

Yes14 traders

Total Value$246.81

Total Shares82,271

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 7%Yes — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

215 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.5¢	$601.28	$437.03	-$12.76	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$153.74	$98.61	-$55.13	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$15.97	$47.96	+$31.99	51% 527-509 (1036)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$1.0K	$38.97	$-1.0K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
CR Crock95CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$49.05	$35.32	-$13.54	57% 255-194 (449)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yes	$12.41	$12.41	+$12.41	47% 476-535 (1011)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.34	$6	+$3.66	66% 955-482 (1437)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0	$2.37	+$2.37	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.85	$1.85	-$8.97	7% 14-187 (201)
ImbaferCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$8.95	$1.81	-$7.13	56% 238-189 (427)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$0.55	+$0.55	64% 154-88 (242)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Yes	$0.32	$0.32	-$1.55	53% 3726-3240 (6966)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$22	$0.3	-$21.7	71% 968-396 (1364)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.1	$0.19	-$0.92	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$0.15	$0.15	-$0.73	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$601.28

Value

$437.03

PnL

-$12.76

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$153.74

Value

$98.61

PnL

-$55.13

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.97

Value

$47.96

PnL

+$31.99

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,041.83

Value

$38.97

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

Crock95CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.05

Value

$35.32

PnL

-$13.54

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.41

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$12.41

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

PnL

+$3.66

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$2.37

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$8.97

Record

14-187 (201)

ImbaferCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.95

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$7.13

Record

56%

238-189 (427)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$1.55

Record

53%

3726-3240 (6966)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$21.7

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.92

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.73

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

215 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.