Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $890 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

Total Value

$889.97

Combined PnL

-$987.5

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 0.1¢

-84% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$673.77

Total Shares674

Combined PnL+$1.86

Yes14 traders

Total Value$216.2

Total Shares144,134

Combined PnL-$989.36

No — 7%Yes — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

189 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.6¢	$671.9	$673.77	+$1.86	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.0K	$100.84	-$922.53	47% 476-535 (1011)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$121.85	$62.19	-$48.8	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$23.15	+$23.15	64% 154-88 (242)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0	$12.28	+$12.28	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
BigMackyGCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$12.1	$9.08	-$3.02	20% 108-423 (531)
pup1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$38.24	$4.03	-$34.22	46% 1978-2361 (4339)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8	$1.53	-$6.47	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.81	$1.41	-$1.41	66% 955-482 (1437)
ImbaferCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$8.95	$0.91	-$8.04	56% 238-189 (427)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0	$0.54	+$0.54	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0	$0.15	+$0.15	39% 965-1508 (2473)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$0.9	7% 14-187 (201)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.07	$0.01	-$0.06	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$0.05	57% 766-585 (1351)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$671.9

Value

$673.77

PnL

+$1.86

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,023.36

Value

$100.84

PnL

-$922.53

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$121.85

Value

$62.19

PnL

-$48.8

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$23.15

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$12.28

PnL

+$12.28

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

BigMackyGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.1

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$3.02

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

pup1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.24

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$34.22

Record

46%

1978-2361 (4339)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$6.47

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$1.41

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

ImbaferCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.95

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$8.04

Record

56%

238-189 (427)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.54

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.9

Record

14-187 (201)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

189 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.