Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $459 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$458.62

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-75% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$458.62

Total Shares230,424

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

203 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
siickCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$223.79	$149.19	-$111.85	57% 767-580 (1347)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$487.82	$93.36	-$394.45	41% 648-925 (1573)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$9.3K	$54.35	$-3.9K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$115.86	$52.15	-$63.7	67% 751-378 (1129)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$50	$40	-$10	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$99.13	$36.42	-$62.7	41% 166-240 (406)
AO aosdijfCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.6	$9.2	+$2.33	9% 48-464 (512)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$29.22	$8.08	-$21.14	68% 2074-957 (3031)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$6.67	-$28.08	47% 83-94 (177)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$44.43	$5.55	-$40.25	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$8.69	$1.56	-$7.13	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
RD rdbaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$10.76	$0.93	-$8.93	60% 131-88 (219)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.62	$0.62	-$1.95	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.61	$0.45	-$1.17	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.08	-$66.33	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$223.79

Value

$149.19

PnL

-$111.85

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$487.82

Value

$93.36

PnL

-$394.45

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,325.33

Value

$54.35

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$115.86

Value

$52.15

PnL

-$63.7

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$40

PnL

-$10

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$99.13

Value

$36.42

PnL

-$62.7

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

aosdijfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$2.33

Record

48-464 (512)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.22

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$21.14

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$28.08

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.43

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$40.25

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$7.13

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

rdbaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.76

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$8.93

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$1.95

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.17

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,607.91

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$66.33

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

203 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.