Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 17 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

17 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

0.2¢ → 0.4¢

+117% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares1,826,545

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

5076h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.6K	$5.4K	+$3.8K	0% 0-122 (122)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$572.9	$649.13	+$76.23	0% 0-141 (141)
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$333.99	$153.49	-$180.5	0% 0-93 (93)
TU tugatorCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$214.83	$96.25	-$118.58	—
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$108.67	$58.93	-$49.74	0% 0-79 (79)
0X 0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$51.85	$29.53	-$22.32	16% 9-47 (56)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$93.66	$22.54	-$71.12	— 1-0 (1)
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$23.44	$10.5	-$12.94	— 0-3 (3)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$11.51	$5.17	-$6.36	— 14-0 (14)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7.81	$3.5	-$4.31	40% 153-230 (383)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yes	$3.5	$3.5	+$3.5	0% 0-82 (82)
XieGuangKunCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8	$3.5	-$4.5	—
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7.81	$3.5	-$4.31	—
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.04	$3.19	+$2.14	—
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.34	$1.05	-$1.29	0% 0-112 (112)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.15	$0.96	-$1.19	— 8-2 (10)
0X 0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0	$0	-$0	0% 0-121 (121)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,574.6

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

0-122 (122)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$572.9

Value

$649.13

PnL

+$76.23

Record

0-141 (141)

0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR

Yes

Invested

$333.99

Value

$153.49

PnL

-$180.5

Record

0-93 (93)

tugatorCTR

Yes

Invested

$214.83

Value

$96.25

PnL

-$118.58

Record

—

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.67

Value

$58.93

PnL

-$49.74

Record

0-79 (79)

0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.85

Value

$29.53

PnL

-$22.32

Record

16%

9-47 (56)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.66

Value

$22.54

PnL

-$71.12

Record

—

1-0 (1)

pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.44

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$12.94

Record

—

0-3 (3)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.51

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$6.36

Record

—

14-0 (14)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$4.31

Record

40%

153-230 (383)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

0-82 (82)

XieGuangKunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

—

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$4.31

Record

—

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$2.14

Record

—

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.29

Record

0-112 (112)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$1.19

Record

—

8-2 (10)

0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

0-121 (121)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

5076h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.