Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 78¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 4

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

Total Value

$23.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 77.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares28,293

Combined PnL+$688.6

No7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares7,896

Combined PnL+$726.23

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL flawfence	Yesavg 74.8¢	$11.0K	$11.4K	+$399.12	46% 271-319 (590)
WA wan123	Yesavg 74.3¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$294.46	39% 196-304 (500)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 74¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$105.02	71% 318-130 (448)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 10¢	$408.1	$988.04	+$579.94	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 87.8¢	$601.02	$526.91	-$70.69	76% 102-32 (134)
ScottyNoooCTR	Noavg 17.4¢	$334.14	$390.06	+$87.13	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PL plumbisCTR	Noavg 19¢	$247	$298.99	+$45.5	57% 51-39 (90)
probability	Yesavg 81.9¢	$288.66	$273.9	-$14.76	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 87.3¢	$222.33	$183.68	-$25.43	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 77.2¢	$88.94	$88.74	-$0.2	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 21.7¢	$83.54	$78.53	-$5.01	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
TH TheImpasse<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$54	$55.44	+$1.08	22% 145-528 (673)
SU supersmardCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$24.66	$40.52	+$14.97	39% 46-71 (117)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$14.4	$18.4	+$3.6	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
IN insideroCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.33	$1.46	+$0.09	76% 291-93 (384)

flawfence

Yes

Invested

$11,020.2

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$399.12

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

wan123

Yes

Invested

$6,752.61

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$294.46

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$2,219.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$105.02

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$408.1

Value

$988.04

PnL

+$579.94

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$601.02

Value

$526.91

PnL

-$70.69

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

ScottyNoooCTR

Invested

$334.14

Value

$390.06

PnL

+$87.13

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

plumbisCTR

Invested

$247

Value

$298.99

PnL

+$45.5

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

probability

Yes

Invested

$288.66

Value

$273.9

PnL

-$14.76

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$222.33

Value

$183.68

PnL

-$25.43

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.94

Value

$88.74

PnL

-$0.2

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$83.54

Value

$78.53

PnL

-$5.01

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

TheImpasse<$100

Yes

Invested

$54

Value

$55.44

PnL

+$1.08

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

supersmardCTR<$100

Invested

$24.66

Value

$40.52

PnL

+$14.97

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$3.6

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

insideroCTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$0.09

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.