Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (79%) · Yes at 80¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 79%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

27.9¢ → 80.2¢

+188% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares7,843

Combined PnL+$4.0K

No3 traders

Total Value$61.71

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$126.16

Yes — 79%No — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

5025h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU buoys	Yesavg 38.8¢	$1.3K	$2.6K	+$1.3K	— 0-1 (1)
paddaa	Yesavg 9.7¢	$242.79	$2.0K	+$1.7K	—
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 36¢	$471.88	$1.0K	+$562.57	40% 153-230 (383)
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 14.1¢	$38.11	$280.88	+$242.77	— 2-16 (18)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 60.7¢	$89.86	$123.28	+$33.42	— 4-2 (6)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 7¢	$4.56	$108.83	+$104.27	53% 86-75 (161)
RobbbCTR	Noavg 73.7¢	$164.48	$47.09	-$117.39	—
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Yesavg 47.1¢	$26.8	$44.88	+$19.84	— 1-0 (1)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 34.3¢	$14.18	$8.72	-$5.46	— 4-3 (7)
QW qWOprt7<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$1	$8.08	+$7.08	0% 0-53 (53)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$9.21	$5.9	-$3.31	39% 179-277 (456)
AH aHjCz<$100	Yesavg 68.5¢	$3.49	$4.26	+$0.77	33% 204-415 (619)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 58.1¢	$2.92	$4.21	+$1.29	— 8-2 (10)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$0.12	$1.5	+$1.38	8% 3-37 (40)

buoys

Yes

Invested

$1,281.69

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

—

0-1 (1)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$242.79

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

—

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$471.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$562.57

Record

40%

153-230 (383)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$38.11

Value

$280.88

PnL

+$242.77

Record

—

2-16 (18)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$89.86

Value

$123.28

PnL

+$33.42

Record

—

4-2 (6)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$4.56

Value

$108.83

PnL

+$104.27

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

RobbbCTR

Invested

$164.48

Value

$47.09

PnL

-$117.39

Record

—

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.8

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$19.84

Record

—

1-0 (1)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.18

Value

$8.72

PnL

-$5.46

Record

—

4-3 (7)

qWOprt7<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$7.08

Record

0-53 (53)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$9.21

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$3.31

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

aHjCz<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.49

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0.77

Record

33%

204-415 (619)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$1.29

Record

—

8-2 (10)

mildwindow27<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$1.38

Record

3-37 (40)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

5025h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.0%

80.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.