Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Madhurima Sawant, while the market favors Laura Boehner (72%). 9 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Luanda: Laura Boehner vs Madhurima Sawant

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Madhurima Sawant (50%) · Madhurima Sawant at 28¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 10

Laura Boehner72¢Madhurima Sawant28¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Madhurima Sawant

Consensus Traders

Madhurima Sawant 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$290.74

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 28.5¢

-46% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidMadhurima Sawant at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Madhurima Sawant

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Laura Boehner 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Laura Boehner72%

Madhurima Sawant28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Madhurima Sawant9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,610

Combined PnL-$307.29

Laura Boehner9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,845

Combined PnL+$16.55

Madhurima Sawant — 50%Laura Boehner — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Madhurima Sawantavg 60.4¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$260.96	50% 20101-20430 (40531)
RN1ARB<$100	Laura Boehneravg 40.5¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$871.53	53% 58849-51154 (110003)
└ Laura Boehner leg	Laura Boehneravg 40.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$34.87
└ Madhurima Sawant leg	Madhurima Sawantavg 17.6¢	$359.7	$1.2K	+$836.66
FL Flaznorp	Laura Boehneravg 78.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$228.2	51% 23310-22121 (45431)
38 38791873984189	Laura Boehneravg 53.5¢	$689.06	$916.6	+$235.33	48% 14300-15778 (30078)
12xmrbolt	Laura Boehneravg 74.3¢	$587.73	$569.29	-$18.43	44% 250-314 (564)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Laura Boehneravg 57.2¢	$403.29	$426.37	+$23.08	56% 907-708 (1615)
└ Laura Boehner leg	Laura Boehneravg 57.2¢	$214.33	$269.64	+$55.31
└ Madhurima Sawant leg	Madhurima Sawantavg 33.8¢	$188.96	$156.73	-$32.23
MA MadridTimeCTR	Madhurima Sawantavg 33.2¢	$338.88	$321.65	-$17.23	52% 800-746 (1546)
VE VenusianCTR	Madhurima Sawantavg 33¢	$304.69	$262.64	-$44.31	53% 887-780 (1667)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Madhurima Sawantavg 33.7¢	$81.72	$94.29	+$12.57	52% 6689-6200 (12889)
poshposh<$100	Laura Boehneravg 48¢	$76.03	$91.87	+$15.84	57% 11802-8892 (20694)
LR lryyy<$100	Laura Boehneravg 51.9¢	$36.38	$47.7	+$11.32	47% 9041-10174 (19215)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Madhurima Sawantavg 34.1¢	$22.19	$28.78	+$6.59	47% 10527-11752 (22279)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Madhurima Sawantavg 44.3¢	$31.18	$26.72	-$4.46	53% 874-763 (1637)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Madhurima Sawantavg 33.1¢	$7.19	$7.57	+$0.38	59% 31288-21972 (53260)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Laura Boehneravg 56¢	$4.6	$5.11	+$0.51	82% 6676-1436 (8112)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Laura Boehneravg 77¢	$3.35	$3.29	+$0.02	52% 8419-7683 (16102)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Laura Boehneravg 48¢	$2.4	$2.75	+$0.35	48% 5169-5676 (10845)
HRTrading<$100	Laura Boehneravg 80.7¢	$2.34	$2.15	-$0.19	51% 7293-7046 (14339)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Madhurima Sawantavg 32.2¢	$2	$1.99	-$0.01	51% 11593-10978 (22571)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Madhurima Sawantavg 22¢	$0.85	$1	+$0.15	40% 1103-1672 (2775)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$3,217.71

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$260.96

Record

50%

20101-20430 (40531)

RN1ARB<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$1,780.2

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$871.53

Record

53%

58849-51154 (110003)

Both legs:

Laura Boehner$1,420.540.5¢+$34.87

Madhurima Sawant$359.717.6¢+$836.66

Flaznorp

Laura Boehner

Invested

$1,307.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$228.2

Record

51%

23310-22121 (45431)

38791873984189

Laura Boehner

Invested

$689.06

Value

$916.6

PnL

+$235.33

Record

48%

14300-15778 (30078)

12xmrbolt

Laura Boehner

Invested

$587.73

Value

$569.29

PnL

-$18.43

Record

44%

250-314 (564)

LimousinARB<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$403.29

Value

$426.37

PnL

+$23.08

Record

56%

907-708 (1615)

Both legs:

Laura Boehner$214.3357.2¢+$55.31

Madhurima Sawant$188.9633.8¢-$32.23

MadridTimeCTR

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$338.88

Value

$321.65

PnL

-$17.23

Record

52%

800-746 (1546)

VenusianCTR

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$304.69

Value

$262.64

PnL

-$44.31

Record

53%

887-780 (1667)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$81.72

Value

$94.29

PnL

+$12.57

Record

52%

6689-6200 (12889)

poshposh<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$76.03

Value

$91.87

PnL

+$15.84

Record

57%

11802-8892 (20694)

lryyy<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$36.38

Value

$47.7

PnL

+$11.32

Record

47%

9041-10174 (19215)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$22.19

Value

$28.78

PnL

+$6.59

Record

47%

10527-11752 (22279)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$31.18

Value

$26.72

PnL

-$4.46

Record

53%

874-763 (1637)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$7.19

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

31288-21972 (53260)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$4.6

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.51

Record

82%

6676-1436 (8112)

ameisgoat11<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

8419-7683 (16102)

SlickRick123<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

5169-5676 (10845)

HRTrading<$100

Laura Boehner

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.19

Record

51%

7293-7046 (14339)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

11593-10978 (22571)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Madhurima Sawant

Invested

$0.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

1103-1672 (2775)

Research grade

AvoidMadhurima Sawant at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Madhurima Sawant

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Laura Boehner 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Madhurima Sawant wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.