Sopo: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Julia Grabher

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Irene Burillo Escorihuela (55%) · Irene Burillo Escorihuela at 60¢ · $78K held · ends Nov 18

Irene Burillo Escorihuela60¢Julia Grabher40¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Consensus Traders

Irene Burillo Escorihuela 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$78.4K

Combined PnL

$-7.4K

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 59.5¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralIrene Burillo Escorihuela at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Irene Burillo Escorihuela60%

Julia Grabher41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Irene Burillo Escorihuela11 traders

Total Value$51.1K

Total Shares84,848

Combined PnL+$139.39

Julia Grabher9 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares81,651

Combined PnL$-7.6K

Irene Burillo Escorihuela — 55%Julia Grabher — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Irene Burillo Escorihuela. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Julia Grabher) and the top 1000 (16 on Irene Burillo Escorihuela) disagree here.

sharpJulia Grabher 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJulia Grabher 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJulia Grabher 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Irene Burillo Escorihuela 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 59.9¢	$29.2K	$29.5K	+$298.16	50% 3294-3249 (6543)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Julia Grabheravg 41¢	$17.0K	$13.4K	$-3.5K	31% 384-854 (1238)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 59.6¢	$11.6K	$10.0K	$-1.6K	51% 3716-3548 (7264)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Julia Grabheravg 43.8¢	$7.6K	$5.3K	$-1.7K	30% 380-875 (1255)
LI LimousinCTR	Julia Grabheravg 42.3¢	$4.3K	$3.3K	-$963.75	30% 378-880 (1258)
FL Flaznorp	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 49.5¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$416.67	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
VE VenusianCTR	Julia Grabheravg 42.1¢	$4.2K	$3.2K	-$960.12	31% 390-871 (1261)
TH thirdt1me	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 54.7¢	$3.6K	$2.9K	+$197.89	42% 114-157 (271)
38 38791873984189	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 57¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	+$18.89	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
RN1	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$360.72	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
BA babybells	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 46.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$155.22	24% 126-410 (536)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Julia Grabheravg 39.5¢	$1.2K	$993.37	-$170.91	25% 128-376 (504)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 50.6¢	$510.78	$549.77	+$38.99	53% 1818-1628 (3446)
machinelearned	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 58.3¢	$480.33	$481.38	+$1.05	40% 530-798 (1328)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 25¢	$134.9	$350.86	+$215.97	3% 7-201 (208)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 51.4¢	$321.51	$337.97	+$16.46	56% 3856-3022 (6878)
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 51.4¢	$184.88	$230.09	+$45.21
└ Julia Grabher leg	Julia Grabheravg 45.6¢	$136.63	$107.88	-$28.75
VI vibing123CTR	Julia Grabheravg 69¢	$351.9	$247.35	-$104.55	63% 1097-652 (1749)
EU EulhunterCTR	Julia Grabheravg 37.1¢	$239.38	$245.5	+$6.12	50% 106-108 (214)
VeryLucky888CTR	Julia Grabheravg 75¢	$375	$147.48	-$177.85	52% 463-433 (896)
SE sentrio<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 45¢	$16.96	$24.49	+$7.54	38% 351-584 (935)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Julia Grabheravg 54.9¢	$33.48	$19.83	-$13.65	23% 143-492 (635)

6512395314597884

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$29,211.02

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$298.16

Record

50%

3294-3249 (6543)

MadridTimeCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$16,973.68

Value

$13.4K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$11,607.63

Value

$10.0K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

51%

3716-3548 (7264)

LightParadoxCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$7,602.73

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

LimousinCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$4,305.84

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$963.75

Record

30%

378-880 (1258)

Flaznorp

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$2,863.63

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$416.67

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

VenusianCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$4,197.49

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$960.12

Record

31%

390-871 (1261)

thirdt1me

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$3,589.92

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$197.89

Record

42%

114-157 (271)

38791873984189

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$1,827.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$18.89

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

RN1

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$1,057.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$360.72

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

babybells

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$1,152.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$155.22

Record

24%

126-410 (536)

thestingsnakeCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$1,207.03

Value

$993.37

PnL

-$170.91

Record

25%

128-376 (504)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$510.78

Value

$549.77

PnL

+$38.99

Record

53%

1818-1628 (3446)

machinelearned

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$480.33

Value

$481.38

PnL

+$1.05

Record

40%

530-798 (1328)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$134.9

Value

$350.86

PnL

+$215.97

Record

7-201 (208)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$321.51

Value

$337.97

PnL

+$16.46

Record

56%

3856-3022 (6878)

Both legs:

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$184.8851.4¢+$45.21

Julia Grabher$136.6345.6¢-$28.75

vibing123CTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$351.9

Value

$247.35

PnL

-$104.55

Record

63%

1097-652 (1749)

EulhunterCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$239.38

Value

$245.5

PnL

+$6.12

Record

50%

106-108 (214)

VeryLucky888CTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$375

Value

$147.48

PnL

-$177.85

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

sentrio<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$16.96

Value

$24.49

PnL

+$7.54

Record

38%

351-584 (935)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$33.48

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$13.65

Record

23%

143-492 (635)

Research grade

NeutralIrene Burillo Escorihuela at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Irene Burillo Escorihuela. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Julia Grabher) and the top 1000 (16 on Irene Burillo Escorihuela) disagree here.

sharpJulia Grabher 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJulia Grabher 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJulia Grabher 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Irene Burillo Escorihuela 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Irene Burillo Escorihuela wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.