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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | LightParadox | ndb1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 54% (583–504, n=1087) | 66% (875–457, n=1332) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | $23K | $4.1M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #325 | PM monthly #22 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (160 of 188 open) | 49% (30 of 61 open) | 72% (91 of 127 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 284 at avg 72¢, ROI +29% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 79% of 58) | 7% (won 100% of 21) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 200) | 17% (won 100% of 48) | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 194) | 14% (won 100% of 40) | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 62% (won 100% of 175) | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.