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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankdeltasniperndb1RN1
Record (consensus markets)45% (542–652, n=1194)62% (198–122, n=320)66% (868–456, n=1324)47% (14023–15521, n=29544)
Consensus PnL$11.1M-$40K$4.1M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #973PM monthly #69PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus40% (39 of 97 open)71% (12 of 17 open)73% (16 of 22 open)51% (43 of 84 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topic—Crypto −1 pts, n=122NFL −10 pts, n=132—
Settled positions, side won97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%60% of 325 at avg 59¢, ROI −2%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 79% of 58)24% (won 17% of 77)13% (won 16% of 160)10% (won 57% of 2537)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 200)14% (won 25% of 44)20% (won 39% of 252)22% (won 94% of 5518)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 194)19% (won 66% of 62)24% (won 57% of 306)36% (won 99% of 8928)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 107)44% (won 91% of 142)43% (won 93% of 540)32% (won 100% of 7821)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankdeltasniperndb1RN1
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $950K—Yes $300K—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $265K—Yes $574K—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $77K—No $719K—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $187K—Yes $461K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $287K—No $379—
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $207K——Pelicans $1.1K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $74K—No $823—
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $46K——Pelicans $360
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $280—No $7.0K—
Spread: Hawks (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pacers
Hawks $190——Pacers $110
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $183K—Yes $2.9M—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $59K—Yes $273—