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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | kaxel78 | ndb1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 37% (274–463, n=737) | 66% (876–458, n=1334) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | $142K | $4.1M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #67 | PM monthly #26 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 64% (72 of 113 open) | 79% (22 of 28 open) | 72% (28 of 39 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | — | Politics −1 pts, n=12 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 44% of 409 at avg 45¢, ROI +8% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 53% (won 2% of 216) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 2% (won 60% of 10) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 2% (won 50% of 10) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 42% (won 96% of 173) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.