← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| GollumGekko | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (1349–645, n=1994) | 47% (13855–15340, n=29195) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $232K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #774 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (145 of 191 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 2115 at avg 75¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 378) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 57% of 80) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 76% of 145) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 71% (won 98% of 1512) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | GollumGekko | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $149 | — | No $253K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.0K | — | No $28K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.7K | — | No $25K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.3K | — | Yes $274K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.0K | — | Yes $172K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $850 | — | Yes $30K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.8K | — | Yes $28K | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $490 | — | Yes $14K | — |