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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| GoriIIa | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 72% (243–94, n=337) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $546K | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #920 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (14 of 14 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 58% (15 of 26 open) | 81% (58 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −4 pts, n=95 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 387 at avg 86¢, ROI +3% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 20% of 10) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 2% (won 43% of 7) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 67% of 27) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 89% (won 90% of 343) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | GoriIIa | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $42K | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | No $14K | — | — | Yes $45K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.2K | — | — | Yes $270K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $433 | Commanders $161K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $125 | Commanders $32K |