← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HorribleWork | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (432–235, n=667) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | -$234K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #985 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 6% (1 of 17 open) | 86% (54 of 63 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Economy −6 pts, n=36 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 70% of 615 at avg 67¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 27% (won 15% of 163) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 36% of 39) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 71% of 35) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 61% (won 98% of 378) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HorribleWork | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $77K | No $278K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $15K | No $250K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $3.0K | Yes $170K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $15 | Yes $274K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $320 | Yes $85K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $947 | Yes $36K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $618 | No $34K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $100 | Yes $30K | — | — |