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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Jellow2 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (191–91, n=282) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $133K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #617 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 92% (11 of 12 open) | 63% (20 of 32 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Entertainment −5 pts, n=38 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 467 at avg 68¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 13% of 76) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 41% of 41) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 61% of 70) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 60% (won 93% of 280) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Jellow2 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $29K | — | Yes $77K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $9.1K | — | Yes $37K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.5K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $219 | — | Yes $28K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $485 | — | No $22K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $11K | — | Yes $169K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $3.0K | — | No $590 | — |