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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Optimus- | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (983–628, n=1611) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 62% (393–246, n=639) |
| Consensus PnL | $91K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 56% (33 of 59 open) | 86% (54 of 63 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 33% (1 of 3 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −4 pts, n=48 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 58% of 1605 at avg 53¢, ROI +6% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 18% of 473) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 43% of 242) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 65% of 314) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 93% of 576) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Optimus- | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $500 | No $278K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.0K | No $202K | — | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $125 | — | Yes $68 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | Yes $274K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.9K | Yes $170K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $495 | Yes $81K | — | — |