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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| SirHarryOakes | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 86% (173–29, n=202) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $47K | $10.6M | $3.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (18 of 18 open) | 71% (73 of 103 open) | no open consensus position | 66% (101 of 153 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Politics −2 pts, n=35 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 93% of 262 at avg 90¢, ROI +6% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 33% of 6) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 97% (won 95% of 253) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | SirHarryOakes | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $255K | — | Steelers $5.5K |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Raiders $171K | — | Jets $192 |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $59K | — | Cowboys $11K |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Raiders $17K | — | Jets $400 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $8.6K | — | Buccaneers $1.9K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $3.0K | — | Cowboys $1.4K |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $104K | — | Raiders $2.3K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) same side · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $35K | — | Cardinals $714 |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $24K | — | Raiders $1.1K |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $20K | — | Jaguars $643 |