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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| TBill1 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (110–138, n=248) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $82K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #978 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 62% (28 of 45 open) | 67% (22 of 33 open) | 73% (72 of 99 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −3 pts, n=52 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 61% of 193 at avg 52¢, ROI −6% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 36% (won 12% of 69) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 8% (won 63% of 16) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 16% (won 81% of 31) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 40% (won 97% of 77) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | TBill1 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $19K | — | Yes $77K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $155 | — | No $590 | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $58 | — | Yes $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |