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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flow-trader-at-optiver | BreakTheBank | RN1 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 25% (447–1350, n=1797) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 72% (23 of 32 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | 71% (15 of 21 open) | 52% (11 of 21 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 3819 at avg 86¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 20% of 313) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 64% of 119) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 78% of 171) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 84% (won 99% of 3216) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flow-trader-at-optiver | BreakTheBank | RN1 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs. Broncos opposite sides · consensus Chiefs | — | Chiefs $465K | — | Broncos $6.8K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $20 | No $252K | — | — |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Falcons | — | — | Falcons $2.7K | Buccaneers $3.0K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $4 | No $102K | — | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $46 | No $23K | — | — |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $15 | Yes $4.7K | — | — |