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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flow-trader-at-optiver | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 25% (447–1350, n=1797) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (26 of 37 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 85% (52 of 61 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 3819 at avg 86¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 20% of 313) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 64% of 119) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 78% of 171) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 84% (won 99% of 3216) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flow-trader-at-optiver | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $21 | — | — | No $250K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $5 | — | — | No $112K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $46 | — | — | No $26K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1 | — | — | Yes $15K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $14 | — | — | Yes $14K |