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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
iWasEnoughBreakTheBankbeachboy40x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)55% (5265–4241, n=9506)45% (542–652, n=1194)68% (43–20, n=63)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL$37K$10.6M$5.8M$19.0M
Tracked asPM monthly #335PM monthly #1was PM monthly #24was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensus66% (65 of 99 open)90% (146 of 163 open)100% (2 of 2 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicEsports −2 pts, n=303—NBA −6 pts, n=93College Basketball −12 pts, n=174
Settled positions, side won50% of 1914 at avg 47¢, ROI +1%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢26% (won 17% of 507)10% (won 82% of 56)3% (won 17% of 6)0% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢29% (won 38% of 559)36% (won 98% of 198)30% (won 57% of 63)42% (won 46% of 565)
Entries 50–70¢24% (won 64% of 461)35% (won 99% of 191)54% (won 51% of 115)57% (won 51% of 766)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 92% of 387)19% (won 100% of 107)14% (won 86% of 29)0% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketiWasEnoughBreakTheBankbeachboy40x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $5No $202K——
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $3No $114K——
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $4No $30K——
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $104Yes $85K——
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $8Yes $83K——
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1.1KYes $31K——
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $168Yes $29K——
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6Yes $22K——
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11Yes $15K——
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1Yes $2.6K——