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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lava-lava | ndb1 | omnibus-076daa | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 43% (455–591, n=1046) | 63% (1101–635, n=1736) | 50% (18390–18278, n=36668) | 48% (19574–21323, n=40897) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.3M | $4.6M | $2.3M | $14.9M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #107 | PM monthly #109 | was PM monthly #584 | PM monthly #35 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (42 of 69 open) | 71% (67 of 95 open) | 60% (53 of 89 open) | 59% (16 of 27 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | NFL −8 pts, n=147 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 933 at avg 39¢, ROI +3% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% | 92% of 12930 at avg 61¢, ROI +31% | 94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 47% (won 8% of 437) | 13% (won 14% of 187) | 8% (won 60% of 989) | 10% (won 57% of 2594) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 17% (won 40% of 156) | 19% (won 39% of 269) | 21% (won 87% of 2698) | 22% (won 94% of 5704) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 72% of 141) | 23% (won 57% of 328) | 38% (won 95% of 4911) | 35% (won 99% of 9204) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 95% of 199) | 44% (won 94% of 622) | 34% (won 99% of 4332) | 33% (won 100% of 8622) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lava-lava | ndb1 | omnibus-076daa | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $8.5K | — | Yes $176 | — |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | — | Under $1.5K | Over $1.7K |
| Hersonissos 3: Oleksii Krutykh vs Oskari Paldanius same side · consensus Oskari Paldanius | — | — | Oskari Paldanius $174 | Oskari Paldanius $37K |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $12K | Yes $4 | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.5K | — | Yes $2.4K | — |
| Will Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $23 | Yes $104 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $56 | — | Yes $10 | — |