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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| mountaindewd | CORGII | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 56% (288–230, n=518) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $174K | $4.5M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #477 + pinned | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (30 of 36 open) | no open consensus position | 71% (58 of 82 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics | ||||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −2 pts, n=58 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 520 at avg 57¢, ROI +12% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 21% of 92) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 65% of 98) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 28% (won 75% of 145) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 95% of 185) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | mountaindewd | CORGII | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $2.4K | — | Yes $71K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $8.3K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $3.6K | — | Yes $28K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.9K | — | No $16K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.8K | — | Yes $274K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $8.9K | — | Yes $172K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $143 | — | No $88K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $2.2K | — | No $40K | — |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $257 | — | Yes $2.5K | — |