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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ndb1BreakTheBank0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)66% (877–461, n=1338)45% (542–652, n=1194)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL$2.8M$10.6M$19.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #69PM monthly #1was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensus68% (52 of 77 open)90% (147 of 164 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicNFL −10 pts, n=132—College Basketball −12 pts, n=174
Settled positions, side won64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢13% (won 16% of 160)10% (won 82% of 56)0% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢20% (won 39% of 252)36% (won 98% of 198)42% (won 46% of 565)
Entries 50–70¢24% (won 57% of 306)35% (won 99% of 191)57% (won 51% of 766)
Entries 70¢ and up43% (won 93% of 540)19% (won 100% of 107)0% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketndb1BreakTheBank0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $315KNo $908K—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $397KNo $202K—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $418KYes $85K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $99KYes $274K—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $2.1KNo $253K—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $90KNo $114K—
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $97KYes $83K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $140KYes $18K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $346Yes $9.3K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2.7MYes $172K—
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $335KNo $407K—
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $11KYes $280K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $12KYes $28K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $16K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $6.4K—